NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	97		Excitement	5.2 [775]		MVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): +17.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	86		Comeback	1.2 [894]		LVP	Jared Dudley (MIL): -17.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.01	0.09	-0.07	11	55%	0.20	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kent Bazemore	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.10	0.02	-0.10	10	48%	0.10	6	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Al Horford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	12	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Paul Millsap	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	21	52%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.03	10	50%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pero Antic	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	15	54%	0.08	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.04	0.03	11	60%	0.08	3	-0.04	3	100%	-0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Miles Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.06	12	63%	0.05	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Tyler Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	6	33%	-0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	11	59%	0.03	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.01	5	29%	-0.03	5	-0.15	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.0	2.4	28.5	15.8	29.8	1.8	31.2	130.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +11.9%

ATL +4.3%

ATL +17.9%

ATL +15.1%

ATL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.1	15.1	100.0	88.7	104.2
season	14.9	14.5		106.7	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.0	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.4	18.1	13.5	15.9	15.6
MIL	14.6	14.6	13.7	13.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Scott	35	35	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.33	7	4	3	17.0	14.8	2.21	14.2	14.0	0.24
Kent Bazemore	48	47	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.20	9	2	7	14.7	16.5	-1.72	12.9	15.2	-2.37
Dennis Schroder	52	55	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.24	5	6	-1	16.2	14.9	1.32	13.0	15.5	-2.43
Al Horford	65	67	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.06	15	-4	19	15.4	16.2	-0.80	14.7	12.7	1.99
Kyle Korver	68	69	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.12	8	3	5	16.3	14.1	2.16	14.4	13.4	1.01
DeMarre Carroll	65	64	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.05	9	2	7	15.6	15.6	0.08	15.0	12.3	2.68
Paul Millsap	66	64	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	8	-5	15.5	15.8	-0.32	14.7	12.9	1.76
Pero Antic	28	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	14	-17	14.7	16.0	-1.27	11.0	15.3	-4.27
Jeff Teague	58	56	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.08	2	9	-7	15.0	16.5	-1.54	14.7	13.2	1.56

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Henson	39	40	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.02	4	-15	19	14.8	13.6	1.29	13.3	17.2	-3.90
Jared Dudley	66	66	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	-8	5	14.5	13.2	1.34	15.4	16.1	-0.75
Miles Plumlee	28	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.12	1	-12	13	13.5	14.3	-0.75	18.1	14.6	3.45
Jerryd Bayless	58	58	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-7	3	15.3	12.3	2.99	15.4	15.9	-0.55
Giannis Antetokounmpo	66	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-5	-1	14.7	12.6	2.10	14.7	17.5	-2.76
Khris Middleton	70	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-7	3	14.7	12.3	2.41	15.9	14.8	1.10
Tyler Ennis	39	39	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	-4	-3	12.3	15.3	-2.99	15.9	15.4	0.55
O.J. Mayo	58	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.07	-12	1	-13	12.5	16.4	-3.91	16.3	14.6	1.65
Ersan Ilyasova	31	31	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.22	-8	-3	-5	13.2	14.5	-1.34	16.1	15.4	0.75
Zaza Pachulia	30	29	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.04	-16	5	-21	13.6	14.3	-0.73	16.4	15.3	1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 83, BOS 75	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.21,0.11,0.05,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.2%
UTA 103, CLE 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.51,0.52,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	94.1%
IND 118, WAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%