NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	97		Excitement	10.1 [71]		MVP	Tobias Harris (ORL): +35.9%
Orlando Magic	103		Comeback	8.8 [180]		LVP	Jordan Clarkson (LAL): -42.8%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Kelly	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16	0.14	0.02	-0.01	14	65%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.06
Jeremy Lin	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	8	87%	0.16	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.03	0.00	6	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Carlos Boozer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	13	52%	0.05	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Wesley Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.12	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Tarik Black	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	6	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Sacre	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.12	-0.01	12	38%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Wayne Ellington	-0.37	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.3,-0.3,-0.37	-0.06	-0.33	-0.03	10	43%	-0.32	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.03
Jordan Clarkson	-0.43	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.23,-0.23,-0.29,-0.38,-0.38,-0.43	-0.05	-0.37	0.00	14	47%	-0.36	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.25	0.14	0.03	18	85%	0.43	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.09	-0.00	6	54%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.06	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	58%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	5	40%	0.05	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.06	-0.16	0.01	21	53%	-0.08	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.05
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.18,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.36	-0.36	-0.11	-0.24	0.01	14	40%	-0.28	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	20.4	1.8	24.2	15.6	23.3	1.7	27.1	0.8	13.0	127.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +76.4%

ORL +5.0%

LAL -20.7%

LAL -9.8%

LAL -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	ORL	NBA	LAL	ORL	NBA
this game	17.7	14.3	15.1	97.0	104.0	104.2
season	15.5	14.9		101.9	100.4
opponent	15.3	14.7		105.9	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
LAL	17.3	15.0	21.1	20.1	13.2	17.7
ORL	14.0	15.0	13.8	14.9	12.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tarik Black	43	43	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.05	7	-13	20	18.1	17.4	0.72	13.8	14.6	-0.79
Jeremy Lin	43	41	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-8	10	17.0	18.2	-1.19	15.0	13.7	1.30
Nick Young	31	31	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.17	1	-7	8	16.4	18.2	-1.83	15.3	13.8	1.54
Robert Sacre	58	60	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.25	2	-8	10	18.7	16.3	2.32	14.0	14.6	-0.54
Ed Davis	42	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	2	-10	16.3	18.7	-2.32	14.6	14.0	0.54
Carlos Boozer	36	34	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	3	-12	17.1	18.0	-0.93	14.8	14.0	0.85
Wayne Ellington	69	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.15	-7	1	-8	18.2	16.4	1.83	13.8	15.3	-1.54
Ryan Kelly	60	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	4	-14	19.3	15.3	3.97	14.2	14.4	-0.24
Wesley Johnson	61	61	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.47	0	-6	6	16.2	20.0	-3.85	14.4	14.1	0.26
Jordan Clarkson	57	58	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	2	-10	18.2	17.0	1.19	13.7	15.0	-1.30

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Green	43	43	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.52	2	4	-2	14.6	14.0	0.52	16.8	18.4	-1.60
Victor Oladipo	67	67	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-3	12	14.1	14.6	-0.44	18.4	16.2	2.28
Nikola Vucevic	77	77	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.23	5	1	4	13.8	15.8	-1.94	17.5	18.3	-0.81
Luke Ridnour	35	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	-5	16	14.5	14.1	0.43	16.9	18.1	-1.17
Aaron Gordon	43	45	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	1	4	14.2	14.3	-0.05	16.9	18.3	-1.36
Tobias Harris	85	85	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	2	2	14.2	14.9	-0.78	17.6	17.9	-0.30
Elfrid Payton	64	63	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.34	-5	11	-16	14.1	14.5	-0.43	18.1	16.9	1.17
Kyle O'Quinn	22	23	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.09	1	5	-4	15.8	13.8	1.94	18.3	17.5	0.81
Evan Fournier	27	28	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	5	-4	14.5	14.2	0.35	17.2	17.9	-0.65
Channing Frye	32	32	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	9	-12	14.3	14.3	0.03	18.9	17.1	1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.31,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.33,0.58,0.64,0.53,0.39,0.47,0.46,0.34,0.59,0.54,0.69,0.63,0.69,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 109, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.2,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.39,0.55,0.45,0.73,0.46,0.53,0.71,0.57,0.85,1	88.9%
UTA 111, NYK 118	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.4,0.53,0.39,0.54,0.55,0.92,0.5,0.39,0.63,0.85,0.98,1	88.1%
NJN 89, NYK 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.26,0.2,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.54,0.32,0.42,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.78,0.74,1	88.0%