NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	94		Excitement	3.5 [1100]		MVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): +13.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	103		Comeback	1.0 [1242]		LVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): -7.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Victor Oladipo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	11	64%	0.10	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Channing Frye	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	13	55%	0.08	4	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	5	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.05
Kyle O'Quinn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Willie Green	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	10	40%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	14	37%	-0.06	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.01	-0.03	13	71%	0.18	3	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.00	0.02	8	83%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.00	6	86%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Courtney Lee	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	65%	0.08	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Marc Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	13	48%	0.06	3	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	6	42%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	7	56%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Calathes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	3	0%	-0.02	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	8	31%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	30.3	16.2	28.2	1.8	27.3	128.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +23.8%

MEM +14.1%

MEM +1.0%

MEM +7.2%

MEM +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MEM	NBA	ORL	MEM	NBA
this game	14.3	16.0	15.1	98.9	108.4	104.2
season	14.9	15.9		100.4	103.8
opponent	15.2	15.3		100.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.7	16.8	13.2	14.5	14.3
MEM	17.3	13.2	19.0	14.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dewayne Dedmon	61	61	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.48	14	-23	37	13.4	15.9	-2.44	16.3	15.6	0.64
Willie Green	38	38	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-12	15	14.7	14.0	0.71	16.0	16.0	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	40	42	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-4	-1	13.8	14.6	-0.75	16.1	16.0	0.11
Evan Fournier	34	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	1	-11	15.4	13.7	1.76	14.3	17.0	-2.65
Kyle O'Quinn	25	23	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.15	-13	4	-17	16.4	13.5	2.87	16.3	15.9	0.36
Channing Frye	24	26	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	2	-13	14.2	14.3	-0.10	15.7	16.2	-0.47
Victor Oladipo	63	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-12	15	13.7	15.4	-1.64	16.8	14.4	2.44
Tobias Harris	41	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.08	-14	5	-19	15.1	13.6	1.47	16.1	16.0	0.08
Elfrid Payton	72	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-4	-1	13.8	15.8	-2.03	15.8	16.8	-0.96
Nikola Vucevic	77	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-2	-5	14.3	14.2	0.08	16.1	15.7	0.45

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	44	43	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.16	6	3	3	14.5	17.3	-2.81	15.8	13.1	2.71
Beno Udrih	50	52	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	4	1	15.6	16.5	-0.91	14.9	13.5	1.41
Zach Randolph	65	66	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	3	3	17.0	13.8	3.21	13.6	15.8	-2.12
Courtney Lee	63	63	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	5	-1	17.2	13.7	3.58	13.7	15.4	-1.69
Kosta Koufos	25	26	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.07	7	2	5	14.4	16.6	-2.21	15.8	13.7	2.10
Marc Gasol	70	69	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	7	-5	16.6	14.4	2.21	13.7	15.8	-2.10
Nick Calathes	32	32	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	4	1	13.7	17.2	-3.58	15.4	13.7	1.69
Jon Leuer	30	29	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	6	-3	13.8	17.0	-3.21	15.8	13.6	2.12
Mike Conley	45	43	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	5	-1	16.5	15.6	0.91	13.5	14.9	-1.41
Jeff Green	51	52	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	6	-3	17.3	14.5	2.81	13.1	15.8	-2.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 89, MIA 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.67,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
LAC 80, PHI 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
NJN 71, HOU 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%