NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	118		Excitement	4.6 [882]		MVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): +15.4%
Detroit Pistons	128		Comeback	1.0 [1192]		LVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): -11.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Victor Oladipo	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	18	57%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Channing Frye	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.04	0.05	15	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Evan Fournier	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	8	70%	0.10	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Aaron Gordon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	9	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.00	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.01	0.03	23	52%	0.03	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Devyn Marble	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	9	44%	-0.01	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.00	8	59%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	-0.01	0.00	16	71%	0.16	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Singler	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	-0.00	0.00	6	100%	0.13	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.03	21	51%	0.13	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.01	0.06	14	72%	0.08	5	-0.09	8	75%	-0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	9	28%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.8	23.8	15.8	23.7	1.7	33.6	124.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +42.6%

ORL -5.2%

DET +9.4%

DET +3.0%

DET +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	12.6	14.6	15.1	111.3	120.8	104.2
season	14.9	15.7		100.4	104.0
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.0	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.9	11.9	15.2	10.8	12.6
DET	14.3	16.9	14.2	13.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	25	25	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.20	9	-19	28	12.8	12.5	0.22	15.8	14.2	1.55
Kyle O'Quinn	29	31	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.31	12	-22	34	12.0	12.8	-0.82	16.3	13.9	2.42
Willie Green	23	24	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.23	9	-19	28	13.1	12.5	0.63	15.4	14.3	1.03
Luke Ridnour	15	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-13	16	10.9	12.9	-2.01	16.3	14.3	2.05
Ben Gordon	13	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-10	10	12.2	12.7	-0.50	15.8	14.4	1.45
Tobias Harris	54	56	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.30	7	-17	24	11.4	13.8	-2.46	15.3	13.8	1.47
Evan Fournier	52	52	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-9	8	11.9	13.2	-1.28	14.6	14.6	0.04
Devyn Marble	45	45	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.02	-12	2	-14	13.2	12.1	1.09	14.0	15.0	-0.92
Channing Frye	52	50	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.10	-17	7	-24	13.8	11.4	2.46	13.8	15.3	-1.47
Victor Oladipo	77	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.01	-16	6	-22	12.7	12.3	0.34	14.3	15.4	-1.11
Elfrid Payton	68	67	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.12	-22	12	-34	12.8	12.2	0.60	13.9	15.7	-1.85
Nikola Vucevic	77	75	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.10	-22	12	-34	12.8	12.0	0.82	13.9	16.3	-2.42

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	77	75	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.14	24	-14	38	13.1	18.6	-5.57	12.8	12.0	0.79
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	81	82	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.03	23	-13	36	13.5	18.2	-4.74	12.7	12.3	0.34
Andre Drummond	71	70	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.12	14	-4	18	13.1	17.6	-4.56	12.9	11.9	0.98
Kyle Singler	48	48	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	2	6	13.8	15.2	-1.47	13.6	11.8	1.77
Anthony Tolliver	74	73	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	11	-12	14.7	14.4	0.29	12.0	14.0	-2.00
Greg Monroe	53	55	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.08	12	-2	14	15.0	14.1	0.89	13.2	11.9	1.30
Jodie Meeks	55	53	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.29	-7	17	-24	15.4	13.7	1.64	11.4	13.8	-2.32
Joel Anthony	14	14	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.07	-5	15	-20	20.1	13.7	6.33	11.7	12.7	-1.01
Caron Butler	28	29	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	14	-18	17.6	13.5	4.17	12.9	12.5	0.42
D.J. Augustin	29	31	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.07	-14	24	-38	18.6	13.1	5.57	12.0	12.8	-0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.89,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.88,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 95, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.76,0.78,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1	94.6%
DEN 106, ATL 117	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.91,1,1	94.4%
SAS 93, PHX 103	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.76,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1	94.4%