NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	85		Excitement	3.3 [1118]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +14.1%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	1.2 [737]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (MEM): -8.5%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	15	53%	0.07	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	4	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	8	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Adams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.08	0.00	0.08	6	86%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jarnell Stokes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	5	47%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Quincy Pondexter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	46%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Nick Calathes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	-0.00	-0.07	9	22%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	70%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	11	36%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	8	29%	-0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	7	14%	-0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	0.01	0.02	12	79%	0.15	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.16	0.00	0.03	14	81%	0.17	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	-0.05	10	54%	0.07	3	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	2	33%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	0.03	6	69%	0.04	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.06	12	52%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	0.05	9	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	5	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	30.1	15.5	28.3	2.5	27.3	128.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +28.1%

DEN +14.5%

DEN +6.7%

MEM -2.1%

DEN +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.1	15.1	89.5	121.3	104.2
season	15.9	14.6		103.8	103.4
opponent	15.3	15.2		106.6	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	18.3	17.6	15.9	13.9	16.3
DEN	14.4	14.3	13.5	14.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Adams	13	14	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-31	33	14.2	16.7	-2.44	13.8	14.2	-0.40
Jon Leuer	38	40	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.19	-7	-22	15	16.0	16.5	-0.52	14.4	13.9	0.56
Tony Allen	42	44	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-25	21	17.0	15.8	1.10	14.8	13.6	1.21
Quincy Pondexter	33	32	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.02	-5	-24	19	15.5	16.8	-1.21	14.1	14.1	-0.05
Nick Calathes	48	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.27	-16	-13	-3	14.9	17.9	-3.00	13.5	14.8	-1.28
Marc Gasol	50	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.15	-12	-17	5	18.0	14.5	3.43	14.6	13.6	1.05
Jarnell Stokes	31	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	-22	15	16.7	16.2	0.55	14.8	13.8	1.01
Courtney Lee	44	44	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.11	-11	-18	7	17.7	15.2	2.46	14.5	13.8	0.70
Mike Conley	47	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.08	-13	-16	3	17.9	14.9	3.00	14.8	13.5	1.28
Vince Carter	34	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.34	-22	-7	-15	15.0	17.1	-2.08	13.2	14.6	-1.43
Tayshaun Prince	40	36	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	0.45	-27	-2	-25	16.4	16.3	0.07	13.5	14.5	-1.06
Kosta Koufos	55	53	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.28	-23	-6	-17	15.1	18.0	-2.92	13.3	15.2	-1.89

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	62	64	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.27	27	2	25	14.0	14.4	-0.42	16.9	15.1	1.84
Jusuf Nurkic	49	51	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.41	29	0	29	13.2	15.1	-1.84	14.8	18.1	-3.27
Ty Lawson	71	73	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.45	27	2	25	14.3	13.5	0.86	16.7	15.0	1.68
Darrell Arthur	32	33	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.44	26	3	23	12.6	14.9	-2.37	15.2	16.9	-1.72
JJ Hickson	41	41	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.14	14	15	-1	13.0	15.0	-1.96	15.5	17.0	-1.45
Kenneth Faried	53	54	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.21	15	14	1	15.0	13.0	1.96	17.0	15.5	1.45
Nate Robinson	17	17	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	24	-19	14.4	14.1	0.35	17.9	16.0	1.95
Wilson Chandler	66	67	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.11	9	20	-11	15.2	11.7	3.49	17.1	14.4	2.71
Timofey Mozgov	45	44	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	29	-29	15.1	13.2	1.84	18.1	14.8	3.27
Alonzo Gee	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	31	-33	13.8	14.2	-0.40	14.2	16.7	-2.44
Gary Harris	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	31	-33	13.8	14.2	-0.40	14.2	16.7	-2.44
Erick Green	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	31	-33	13.8	14.2	-0.40	14.2	16.7	-2.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.6,0.7,0.72,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 95, TOR 122	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
POR 79, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.73,0.78,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
NJN 104, WAS 123	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.89,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%