NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	97		Excitement	10.3 [66]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +18.7%
Portland Trail Blazers	102		Comeback	13.2 [129]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -55.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.16	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16	-0.02	0.16	-0.01	15	40%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	-0.00	0.11	-0.00	4	80%	0.31	3	-0.19	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	11	64%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	13	46%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	0.01	-0.14	-0.00	15	47%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.10	-0.16	-0.02	10	28%	-0.22	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Kyle Lowry	-0.56	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,-0.12,-0.4,-0.4,-0.46,-0.46,-0.53,-0.56	-0.10	-0.46	-0.00	26	43%	-0.32	4	-0.23	6	83%	0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.12	0.00	14	68%	0.26	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	11	50%	0.23	2	-0.20	4	75%	0.01
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,-0.06,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.02	19	53%	0.09	2	-0.12	5	60%	-0.06
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.21,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.07	0.01	24	49%	-0.02	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	7	25%	-0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	20.2	1.5	29.3	15.5	22.2	1.8	42.0	2.5	25.1	160.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +66.9%

TOR -0.0%

TOR -8.6%

TOR -13.6%

POR +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	POR	NBA	TOR	POR	NBA
this game	16.8	15.0	15.1	97.0	102.0	104.2
season	15.6	15.3		109.1	106.5
opponent	15.0	15.0		102.7	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	18.0	15.0	18.3	18.7	12.5	16.8
POR	15.4	15.7	15.2	15.6	11.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Hansbrough	16	17	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.02	4	-9	13	16.7	16.8	-0.06	19.2	14.1	5.03
Amir Johnson	58	58	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.11	6	-11	17	16.9	16.6	0.27	16.5	12.9	3.57
Jonas Valanciunas	55	54	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.09	-4	-1	-3	18.4	14.9	3.47	14.7	15.3	-0.60
Lou Williams	46	50	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-5	5	16.3	17.3	-1.00	14.9	15.1	-0.24
James Johnson	62	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-2	-1	17.1	16.3	0.82	16.2	13.3	2.91
Greivis Vasquez	44	47	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-2	-1	16.0	17.4	-1.35	13.2	16.6	-3.33
Terrence Ross	72	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	0	-5	17.3	15.6	1.71	15.1	14.8	0.33
Kyle Lowry	77	77	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	-1	-3	17.0	16.2	0.76	14.9	15.4	-0.56
Patrick Patterson	57	57	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.34	-11	6	-17	16.0	17.9	-1.86	13.6	16.8	-3.22

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	77	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.36	13	-8	21	14.8	15.7	-0.85	17.2	15.6	1.55
Joel Freeland	59	58	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.77	-4	9	-13	16.5	12.8	3.76	16.6	17.0	-0.39
Damian Lillard	87	87	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-6	17	14.8	16.2	-1.41	17.3	13.4	3.93
Nicolas Batum	80	79	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.43	5	0	5	15.2	14.2	1.00	16.9	16.3	0.65
Wesley Matthews	79	82	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.34	4	1	3	14.9	15.5	-0.60	16.5	18.1	-1.53
Dorell Wright	33	31	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.06	-1	6	-7	13.7	15.7	-1.99	16.5	16.9	-0.41
Chris Kaman	30	32	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.10	-1	6	-7	14.4	15.2	-0.81	17.1	16.7	0.43
CJ McCollum	11	10	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	12	-19	16.2	14.9	1.33	12.4	17.3	-4.89
Steve Blake	44	44	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.34	5	0	5	14.6	15.3	-0.73	16.6	16.9	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.11,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.22,0.13,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.55,0.34,0.84,0.46,0.45,0.79,0.94,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 111, NYK 118	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.4,0.53,0.39,0.54,0.55,0.92,0.5,0.39,0.63,0.85,0.98,1	91.8%
POR 95, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.09,0.21,0.46,0.33,0.55,0.7,0.56,0.69,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.91,0.92,1	91.0%
PHI 109, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.2,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.39,0.55,0.45,0.73,0.46,0.53,0.71,0.57,0.85,1	90.7%