NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	92		Excitement	7.2 [372]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +32.3%
Indiana Pacers	90		Comeback	3.1 [470]		LVP	CJ Watson (IND): -28.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.32	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0.08,0.38,0.32	0.05	0.26	-0.02	20	52%	0.39	1	-0.06	12	75%	0.01
Pau Gasol	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.02	14	59%	0.09	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Nikola Mirotic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.06	5	73%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Tony Snell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	44%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
E'Twaun Moore	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,0,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.06
Aaron Brooks	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.07	-0.02	4	20%	-0.05	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.28,-0.26	-0.12	-0.20	-0.06	20	37%	-0.20	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lavoy Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16	0.15	-0.02	0.15	-0.02	8	35%	0.16	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Solomon Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	8	62%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	11	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Copeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.19,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.07	-0.07	0.03	10	77%	0.21	3	-0.25	2	100%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	35%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.05	11	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	45%	-0.01	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.00	-0.18	0.01	8	50%	-0.04	2	-0.16	4	50%	-0.01
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.29	-0.29	-0.07	-0.21	0.00	7	25%	-0.19	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.4	28.4	15.0	28.0	1.8	33.4	130.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -20.7%

CHI +29.6%

CHI +6.3%

CHI +35.8%

IND -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	15.7	14.7	15.1	97.9	94.7	104.2
season	15.5	16.0		105.4	102.3
opponent	15.0	15.2		102.0	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.1	15.6	14.4	17.0	15.7
IND	15.9	15.7	13.8	13.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	87	88	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.55	13	-11	24	15.3	21.3	-6.00	14.7	15.4	-0.74
Pau Gasol	70	70	0.93	-0.43	1.35	0.49	15	-13	28	15.2	17.2	-2.04	14.3	16.1	-1.86
Derrick Rose	68	69	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.34	2	0	2	15.4	16.5	-1.06	14.9	14.4	0.50
Joakim Noah	55	56	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	2	-2	15.7	15.8	-0.19	14.8	14.7	0.05
Aaron Brooks	44	44	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.43	-9	11	-20	16.3	15.2	1.14	13.7	15.7	-1.98
E'Twaun Moore	32	33	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.19	-2	4	-6	15.5	15.8	-0.31	15.3	14.5	0.85
Nikola Mirotic	20	21	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	3	-4	16.8	15.4	1.35	16.7	14.2	2.53
Mike Dunleavy	47	47	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.27	7	-5	12	16.0	15.5	0.45	14.9	14.6	0.37
Tony Snell	4	4	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	7	-12	22.7	15.4	7.33	18.5	14.6	3.92
Taj Gibson	43	43	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.01	-10	12	-22	16.2	15.4	0.83	14.6	14.9	-0.35

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Miles	47	47	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.47	15	-17	32	14.0	15.5	-1.44	16.7	14.7	2.02
Chris Copeland	36	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.53	16	-18	34	14.0	15.2	-1.20	15.9	15.6	0.23
Luis Scola	46	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.55	15	-17	32	14.2	15.2	-0.99	16.8	14.8	1.96
Roy Hibbert	29	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	4	-10	16.9	13.8	3.04	15.7	15.7	-0.00
CJ Watson	54	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.42	5	-7	12	13.8	16.0	-2.12	16.2	15.1	1.13
Rodney Stuckey	42	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.04	-11	9	-20	15.7	14.0	1.78	15.0	16.4	-1.40
Lavoy Allen	66	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.48	4	-6	10	13.8	16.9	-3.04	15.7	15.7	0.00
George Hill	47	47	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	9	-20	15.6	13.9	1.68	15.4	16.1	-0.70
David West	49	49	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.11	-17	15	-32	15.2	14.2	0.99	14.8	16.8	-1.96
Solomon Hill	59	58	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.10	-20	18	-38	15.2	13.9	1.29	15.2	16.6	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.31,0.65,0.73,0.68,0.54,0.55,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 114, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.2,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.19,0.41,0.65,0.83,0.81,0.63,0.43,0.16,0	92.5%
SEA 96, SAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.22,0.41,0.54,0.69,0.45,0.33,0.09,0	90.5%
SAS 99, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.17,0.32,0.41,0.35,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.42,0	90.5%