NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	106		Excitement	7.8 [283]		MVP	Corey Brewer (HOU): +30.2%
San Antonio Spurs	110		Comeback	2.4 [493]		LVP	Josh Smith (HOU): -19.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Brewer	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.19	0.11	0.00	11	96%	0.39	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.03	0.04	13	73%	0.20	4	-0.14	7	29%	-0.05
Donatas Motiejunas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	69%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Trevor Ariza	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02	-0.05	0.03	0.00	9	35%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Joey Dorsey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.08
Jason Terry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	4	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.16	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.03,0,-0.07,-0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.15,-0.16	-0.02	-0.13	0.02	18	67%	0.18	9	-0.34	6	83%	0.01
Patrick Beverley	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.00	10	25%	-0.09	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.12	-0.07	0.00	7	31%	-0.09	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.01	0.00	13	67%	0.18	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.05
Cory Joseph	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.06	0.01	9	74%	0.21	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.02	7	83%	0.19	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	5	80%	0.13	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	5	80%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	12	55%	0.08	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	11	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.14,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.05	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	8	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	27.5	14.8	30.2	2.6	37.3	138.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +7.8%

SAS +17.4%

HOU -7.8%

SAS +29.7%

SAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	13.3	14.6	15.1	105.0	104.8	104.2
season	14.3	15.4		105.6	106.9
opponent	14.9	14.9		101.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.6	13.5	13.1	13.0	13.3
SAS	15.2	14.2	15.7	13.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Ariza	78	82	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.20	13	-17	30	13.2	13.5	-0.30	14.5	15.3	-0.79
Joey Dorsey	16	16	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-8	12	12.9	13.4	-0.42	12.7	15.0	-2.24
Jason Terry	36	41	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.15	6	-10	16	13.7	13.1	0.59	13.4	15.4	-1.98
Josh Smith	52	56	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.09	-11	7	-18	13.6	12.9	0.72	14.8	14.4	0.41
Dwight Howard	79	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-5	6	13.2	13.5	-0.21	15.0	13.2	1.85
Corey Brewer	51	53	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.18	-6	2	-8	13.5	13.0	0.53	13.5	15.8	-2.34
Donatas Motiejunas	53	52	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.33	-6	2	-8	13.3	13.3	0.03	14.8	14.5	0.24
Patrick Beverley	66	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.30	-7	3	-10	13.0	13.9	-0.87	15.3	13.5	1.76
James Harden	74	76	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.41	-14	10	-24	13.1	13.7	-0.57	15.5	12.5	2.99

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	27	26	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.22	18	-14	32	14.7	14.6	0.03	12.8	13.5	-0.65
Danny Green	74	73	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.30	14	-10	24	15.2	13.4	1.74	13.2	13.5	-0.29
Tim Duncan	67	66	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.39	9	-5	14	15.3	13.5	1.76	12.7	14.5	-1.79
Patty Mills	48	45	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.39	4	0	4	13.6	15.5	-1.88	12.5	13.9	-1.40
Cory Joseph	72	72	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	0	4	15.1	13.6	1.56	13.7	12.4	1.27
Manu Ginobili	56	53	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.16	-3	7	-10	13.5	16.0	-2.54	12.9	13.7	-0.80
Tiago Splitter	45	42	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	9	-14	15.1	14.3	0.85	13.9	12.9	0.98
Aron Baynes	24	23	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	9	-14	13.5	15.0	-1.43	13.2	13.3	-0.09
Marco Belinelli	68	63	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.08	-10	14	-24	15.0	13.9	1.13	13.5	13.0	0.50
Boris Diaw	44	42	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.04	-6	10	-16	14.1	15.0	-0.92	14.6	12.4	2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.65,0.86,0.97,0.93,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 97, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.96,1	92.5%
MEM 87, HOU 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.66,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.95,1	92.3%
MIN 103, WAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.87,0.97,0.93,1,1,1	92.3%