NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	5.8 [661]		MVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): +7.2%
Brooklyn Nets	91		Comeback	1.2 [390]		LVP	Jarrett Jack (BKN): -13.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	3	83%	0.14	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Shabazz Napier	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	4	110%	0.16	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Shawne Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	8	56%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04	0.05	0.02	0.02	24	54%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Hamilton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	13	53%	0.08	4	-0.10	8	75%	0.01
James Ennis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Norris Cole	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	8	22%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	14	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Darius Morris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Mason Plumlee	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	12	66%	0.08	4	-0.09	8	62%	-0.02
Mirza Teletovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergey Karasev	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	9	52%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	0.00	4	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	12	48%	-0.01	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.02
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	6	31%	-0.05	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	57.6	2.4	31.5	15.5	26.3	2.5	40.3	176.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.0%

MIA +5.5%

MIA +7.2%

BKN -5.3%

BKN -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BKN	NBA	MIA	BKN	NBA
this game	15.7	14.6	15.1	100.0	95.8	104.2
season	16.0	15.3		102.4	102.9
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.8	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.1	15.0	17.3	16.5	15.7
BKN	16.5	14.4	14.6	13.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	65	65	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.29	8	-4	12	14.8	17.6	-2.75	13.4	17.1	-3.65
Chris Andersen	42	41	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-7	18	15.5	15.8	-0.30	13.7	15.3	-1.61
Shawne Williams	38	39	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.00	16	-12	28	14.6	16.5	-1.94	14.1	14.9	-0.84
Luol Deng	81	80	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.36	1	3	-2	15.9	14.8	1.09	14.6	14.7	-0.16
Shabazz Napier	37	38	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	-2	8	15.9	15.6	0.33	13.8	15.1	-1.31
Norris Cole	60	59	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.38	-4	8	-12	15.9	15.4	0.45	15.4	13.2	2.22
James Ennis	6	6	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	1	2	15.0	15.8	-0.76	15.5	14.5	0.96
Dwyane Wade	70	71	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.32	-9	13	-22	15.9	15.2	0.75	14.5	14.7	-0.20
Justin Hamilton	31	31	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.02	-1	5	-6	16.3	15.5	0.80	16.6	13.6	3.04
Udonis Haslem	45	45	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.23	-11	15	-26	16.8	14.7	2.14	15.7	13.6	2.07

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	39	39	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-8	12	16.3	13.4	2.85	16.9	14.9	1.96
Darius Morris	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-4	4	0.0	14.6	-14.60	1.0	15.9	-14.87
Sergey Karasev	43	43	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-1	-2	15.3	14.0	1.33	16.2	15.3	0.86
Joe Johnson	72	73	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.35	8	-12	20	14.9	13.5	1.42	16.0	14.7	1.35
Cory Jefferson	21	21	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	5	-14	13.7	14.9	-1.14	14.0	16.2	-2.20
Jerome Jordan	11	11	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	0	-4	15.6	14.5	1.17	15.3	15.8	-0.50
Mirza Teletovic	23	23	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	0	-4	14.3	14.7	-0.33	15.6	15.8	-0.20
Bojan Bogdanovic	35	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.14	-3	-1	-2	12.6	15.7	-3.12	15.1	16.1	-0.98
Alan Anderson	33	33	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-6	8	14.8	14.5	0.29	16.1	15.5	0.57
Deron Williams	74	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.39	3	-7	10	15.1	13.0	2.05	15.8	15.3	0.53
Mason Plumlee	64	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	0	-4	14.3	15.3	-0.98	15.7	15.7	0.01
Jarrett Jack	60	58	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.30	-10	6	-16	13.6	16.3	-2.67	15.2	16.5	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.22,0.21,0.31,0.33,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.16,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 94, POR 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.2%
MEM 114, OKC 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.04,0,0,0	94.0%
BOS 93, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.19,0.1,0.02,0.02,0	93.9%