NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	86		Excitement	7.0 [404]		MVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): +10.2%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	1.2 [795]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -31.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	11	65%	0.14	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	17	59%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Aaron Brooks	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	6	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	9	55%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Pau Gasol	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	15	41%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Nikola Mirotic	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	7	19%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.07	-0.00	7	0%	-0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.31	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.22,-0.28,-0.31,-0.31	-0.22	-0.14	-0.06	21	31%	-0.08	6	-0.23	3	67%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	9	67%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	5	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.02	5	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.09	-0.00	12	46%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	5	38%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	70%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.01	19	52%	0.14	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	0.03	16	45%	-0.01	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.5	2.5	29.3	15.7	24.2	2.7	30.2	125.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +42.6%

ATL +15.6%

CHI -28.9%

ATL +24.9%

CHI -4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	15.1	15.1	15.1	88.7	98.9	104.2
season	15.5	14.9		105.4	106.7
opponent	15.4	15.2		101.8	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.8	15.3	14.9	12.7	15.1
ATL	13.5	15.3	15.8	15.6	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	33	32	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-8	9	16.1	14.6	1.48	15.8	14.7	1.12
Aaron Brooks	27	27	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-11	15	15.7	14.8	0.86	17.2	14.2	2.96
Kirk Hinrich	45	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-9	11	14.6	15.5	-0.98	15.6	14.7	0.86
Mike Dunleavy	76	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.06	-7	0	-7	16.2	11.2	4.97	14.8	16.2	-1.35
Taj Gibson	77	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	-2	-3	14.9	15.6	-0.71	15.1	14.9	0.23
Jimmy Butler	79	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.20	-11	4	-15	14.7	16.7	-2.01	14.5	17.0	-2.51
Derrick Rose	65	64	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.27	-9	2	-11	14.5	16.3	-1.79	14.8	15.7	-0.87
Pau Gasol	83	79	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.29	-10	3	-13	14.7	17.1	-2.32	14.7	16.9	-2.13

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	72	76	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.24	14	-7	21	14.6	16.7	-2.10	14.6	16.9	-2.33
Jeff Teague	69	71	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.21	14	-7	21	14.4	16.8	-2.41	15.0	15.3	-0.31
Kyle Korver	67	70	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-5	17	14.6	16.3	-1.66	15.3	14.5	0.83
Al Horford	66	65	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	3	1	15.2	14.9	0.31	15.6	13.9	1.71
Thabo Sefolosha	29	30	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.07	6	1	5	14.7	15.3	-0.61	16.7	14.3	2.39
Elton Brand	25	29	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	4	-1	15.0	15.1	-0.10	14.1	15.5	-1.45
Kent Bazemore	37	37	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	4	-1	15.4	14.9	0.50	13.9	15.8	-1.92
DeMarre Carroll	55	58	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.27	-7	14	-21	15.7	14.2	1.44	14.6	15.9	-1.32
Mike Scott	25	24	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.12	-7	14	-21	16.3	14.6	1.70	16.4	14.7	1.72
Dennis Schroder	25	25	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	14	-21	16.8	14.4	2.41	15.7	14.9	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.71,0.65,0.76,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.58,0.73,0.64,0.79,0.78,0.89,0.84,0.91,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 78, DET 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.99,1,1	93.9%
DAL 91, SAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.75,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.69,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.92,1	93.4%
TOR 100, ORL 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.84,0.79,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.84,1	93.4%