NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	104		Excitement	5.5 [708]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +23.6%
Detroit Pistons	88		Comeback	1.8 [415]		LVP	Josh Smith (DET): -19.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.06	-0.03	14	76%	0.25	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.03	8	100%	0.15	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	7	75%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kendall Marshall	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.02	0.04	6	69%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Larry Sanders	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	4	83%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
O.J. Mayo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	11	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jabari Parker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	7	41%	-0.01	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.03
Brandon Knight	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	7	37%	-0.02	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.03	19	48%	0.09	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.02	0.04	19	62%	0.10	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	9	61%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.02	7	43%	-0.06	2	-0.05	9	78%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.17	-0.06	-0.04	15	38%	-0.06	6	-0.13	4	25%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.5	27.7	16.6	25.3	2.3	23.5	120.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +44.5%

MIL +17.1%

DET -1.6%

DET -8.5%

DET -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	14.9	16.4	15.1	111.8	96.7	104.2
season	14.5	15.7		100.5	104.0
opponent	15.3	15.7		105.0	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.7	15.2	13.2	19.6	14.9
DET	16.2	17.5	16.2	15.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Marshall	42	43	0.63	-0.13	0.75	-0.05	23	-7	30	17.3	13.0	4.32	16.6	16.2	0.38
Khris Middleton	42	41	0.60	-0.10	0.69	-0.05	22	-6	28	17.1	13.1	4.02	16.6	16.2	0.41
Ersan Ilyasova	58	56	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.02	19	-3	22	15.7	13.6	2.06	16.8	15.8	1.03
Jerryd Bayless	40	39	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.09	21	-5	26	17.1	13.3	3.84	17.3	15.8	1.49
Jared Dudley	39	39	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.05	19	-3	22	17.3	13.2	4.08	17.3	15.8	1.49
O.J. Mayo	55	54	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	20	-24	13.5	16.9	-3.44	15.9	17.1	-1.14
Giannis Antetokounmpo	55	54	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	17	-18	13.0	17.7	-4.77	16.5	16.3	0.18
Jabari Parker	54	52	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.08	-3	19	-22	13.2	17.3	-4.08	15.8	17.3	-1.49
Brandon Knight	56	54	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.08	-5	21	-26	13.1	17.6	-4.45	15.9	17.1	-1.14
Larry Sanders	24	23	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.07	-11	27	-38	13.2	15.5	-2.30	15.2	16.8	-1.59

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	66	68	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-19	22	16.2	17.1	-0.93	14.6	15.6	-0.99
Greg Monroe	48	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.05	-2	-14	12	16.8	15.9	0.90	12.8	17.3	-4.52
Andre Drummond	73	76	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-14	12	16.1	17.8	-1.78	15.0	14.6	0.33
Josh Smith	74	75	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-14	12	15.9	18.7	-2.83	14.7	15.8	-1.14
D.J. Augustin	66	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-14	12	16.2	17.1	-0.93	14.1	17.2	-3.07
Spencer Dinwiddie	25	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.15	-14	-2	-12	17.1	16.2	0.93	17.2	14.1	3.07
Jonas Jerebko	21	22	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.10	-17	1	-18	17.9	16.0	1.95	15.7	14.7	1.01
Caron Butler	34	35	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.05	-19	3	-22	17.4	15.8	1.51	15.4	14.6	0.73
Kyle Singler	48	47	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.00	-25	9	-34	16.4	16.5	-0.11	17.1	12.7	4.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.16,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 110, DET 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.34,0.2,0.18,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%
LAL 99, POR 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.15,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%
POR 104, TOR 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.18,0.22,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%