NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	102		Excitement	5.0 [810]		MVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): +17.0%
Toronto Raptors	109		Comeback	1.1 [965]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -11.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.17	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17	0.17	0.02	0.02	10	100%	0.20	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14	0.17	0.01	0.04	11	91%	0.15	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.00	0.05	7	71%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kent Bazemore	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	12	71%	0.10	6	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Elton Brand	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.02	0.04	15	40%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	13	37%	-0.04	4	-0.08	9	56%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.04	5	85%	0.09	1	-0.00	10	90%	0.02
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	11	59%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	15	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.04	8	47%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	11	38%	0.02	0	0.00	7	71%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.01	0.05	9	56%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	33%	0.00	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.12	-0.17	0.00	-0.06	16	36%	-0.02	5	-0.09	10	70%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.3	32.6	16.7	23.8	2.6	40.4	143.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -4.6%

TOR +22.3%

TOR +13.6%

TOR +16.6%

TOR +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.0	16.0	15.1	106.2	113.5	104.2
season	14.9	15.6		106.7	109.1
opponent	15.0	15.4		106.8	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.3	13.6	15.5	12.8	14.0
TOR	14.5	15.2	17.2	17.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	24	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-7	7	13.6	14.1	-0.51	16.9	15.7	1.24
Mike Scott	42	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.33	7	-14	21	13.4	14.5	-1.12	16.0	16.0	0.06
Dennis Schroder	7	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	-1	-5	13.1	14.1	-0.94	16.5	15.9	0.56
Kent Bazemore	20	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-1	-5	16.2	13.4	2.83	16.8	15.8	1.09
Thabo Sefolosha	32	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-2	-3	14.5	13.7	0.78	15.6	16.2	-0.58
Shelvin Mack	27	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-1	-5	14.6	13.8	0.76	17.5	15.4	2.08
Kyle Korver	69	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.41	6	-13	19	13.5	15.3	-1.74	16.1	15.7	0.38
Jeff Teague	68	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.30	0	-7	7	13.6	14.9	-1.25	15.3	17.5	-2.14
DeMarre Carroll	65	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	-3	-1	13.8	14.4	-0.56	15.8	16.4	-0.67
Paul Millsap	65	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	7	-21	14.3	13.4	0.87	15.5	17.0	-1.44
Al Horford	61	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.21	-7	0	-7	14.3	13.5	0.78	16.1	15.8	0.30

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	73	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	3	1	15.5	17.7	-2.24	13.9	14.4	-0.50
Patrick Patterson	45	45	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.09	11	-4	15	16.8	15.3	1.44	14.0	14.0	-0.02
Greivis Vasquez	32	32	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.06	13	-6	19	17.3	15.3	1.94	14.8	13.6	1.25
Amir Johnson	65	66	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.27	1	6	-5	15.2	17.6	-2.45	13.5	15.2	-1.78
Terrence Ross	59	59	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	8	-9	15.1	17.4	-2.30	13.7	14.5	-0.77
Jonas Valanciunas	42	44	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.18	3	4	-1	14.9	16.9	-1.97	14.6	13.5	1.16
Kyle Lowry	71	71	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.35	-3	10	-13	15.7	16.8	-1.10	13.7	14.9	-1.18
Lou Williams	28	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	1	5	16.8	15.7	1.12	14.3	13.9	0.48
James Johnson	25	24	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	5	-3	17.9	15.3	2.61	14.5	13.8	0.65
Tyler Hansbrough	40	37	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	8	-9	17.6	14.9	2.72	14.3	13.8	0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.98,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 109, POR 129	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.83,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
ATL 69, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.73,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
UTA 96, DAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,1	95.5%