NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Excitement	4.7 [883]		MVP	Caron Butler (OKC): +30.6%
Sacramento Kings	92		Comeback	1.0 [1191]		LVP	DeMarcus Cousins (SAC): -7.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.25	0.10	0.04	10	105%	0.31	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.00	0.01	13	74%	0.20	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
Serge Ibaka	0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.02	-0.01	16	53%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	11	54%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Roberson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Perry Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	9	56%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Steven Adams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.03
Nick Collison	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	55%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	8	48%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	71%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	9	50%	0.04	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	-0.03	0.04	20	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	2	80%	0.00	0	0.00	6	100%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray McCallum	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	0.01	-0.06	14	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	24	44%	0.00	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	33.2	15.4	25.3	2.6	28.5	130.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +44.2%

OKC +1.7%

SAC -1.9%

OKC +6.2%

SAC -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAC	NBA	OKC	SAC	NBA
this game	14.9	17.7	15.1	118.9	105.7	105.2
season	14.4	15.4		107.8	104.5
opponent	14.7	15.4		107.1	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.8	15.5	14.9	15.6	14.9
SAC	16.9	18.1	17.9	17.9	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	48	47	0.59	-0.09	0.67	-0.23	28	-13	41	15.0	14.8	0.15	18.2	17.0	1.21
Derek Fisher	43	42	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.18	23	-8	31	15.3	14.6	0.70	19.5	16.0	3.43
Steven Adams	50	49	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.12	11	4	7	14.9	14.9	-0.07	17.9	17.4	0.46
Kevin Durant	61	58	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	4	7	14.2	16.3	-2.12	17.3	18.5	-1.21
Serge Ibaka	53	50	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.02	9	6	3	15.0	14.8	0.22	17.3	18.2	-0.94
Reggie Jackson	48	46	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.02	8	7	1	14.6	15.3	-0.70	17.3	18.0	-0.70
Nick Collison	31	32	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.14	10	5	5	15.0	14.9	0.14	19.0	16.9	2.04
Jeremy Lamb	29	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	11	-7	16.3	14.2	2.12	18.5	17.3	1.21
Perry Jones	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	24	-33	15.3	14.8	0.49	16.1	17.9	-1.82
Andre Roberson	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	22	-29	15.9	14.8	1.11	15.3	17.9	-2.62
Hasheem Thabeet	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	22	-29	13.4	15.0	-1.61	8.5	18.4	-9.86
Kendrick Perkins	28	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	17	-19	14.7	15.0	-0.29	17.1	17.9	-0.77
Thabo Sefolosha	30	29	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	19	-23	14.6	15.0	-0.42	17.4	17.8	-0.45

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-20	25	16.6	17.8	-1.16	14.9	14.9	-0.04
Jared Cunningham	11	13	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.22	7	-22	29	16.1	17.9	-1.82	14.8	14.9	-0.08
Jason Thompson	65	68	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.23	2	-17	19	17.2	19.0	-1.71	15.1	14.4	0.66
Quincy Acy	29	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.06	-8	-7	-1	18.6	17.2	1.31	16.9	14.0	2.88
Travis Outlaw	68	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.16	-4	-11	7	17.2	19.2	-1.96	14.2	17.8	-3.65
DeMarcus Cousins	65	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.13	-17	2	-19	17.7	17.6	0.12	14.2	16.8	-2.56
Ben McLemore	72	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	-1	-13	17.2	19.9	-2.64	15.2	13.8	1.34
Ray McCallum	81	83	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.15	-22	7	-29	18.4	8.5	9.86	15.0	13.4	1.61
Derrick Williams	36	38	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	0.09	-24	9	-33	18.6	17.0	1.59	15.0	14.9	0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 94, MIA 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.33,0.32,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.2%
CHA 123, ATL 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%
TOR 93, BOS 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.0%