NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	95		Excitement	3.1 [1171]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +14.1%
Utah Jazz	83		Comeback	1.5 [1030]		LVP	Jeremy Evans (UTA): -6.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.21	0.00	0.07	11	91%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Vince Carter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	11	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.04	0.00	-0.10	17	44%	0.09	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.03	6	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	8	62%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	64%	0.08	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	62%	0.06	2	-0.03	4	50%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Larkin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.03	3	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	12	54%	0.03	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.10	-0.00	0.08	13	66%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	14	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Trey Burke	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	8	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	10	48%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
Diante Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	17	41%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Jeremy Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	9	33%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.7	23.2	15.6	22.0	1.8	29.0	117.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +52.0%

DAL +5.6%

UTA -6.5%

UTA -2.9%

DAL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	UTA	NBA	DAL	UTA	NBA
this game	18.4	18.3	15.1	120.3	106.4	105.2
season	15.3	16.2		109.0	102.1
opponent	14.8	15.0		109.6	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.0	20.6	18.5	20.2	18.4
UTA	16.3	19.4	19.4	18.7	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	63	61	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.17	8	4	4	18.2	19.1	-0.97	18.8	16.7	2.08
Shawn Marion	54	53	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	4	4	18.5	18.1	0.34	19.0	16.9	2.14
Vince Carter	33	34	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.12	16	-4	20	17.7	18.8	-1.18	20.9	16.3	4.62
Jose Calderon	48	50	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	3	6	19.1	17.3	1.80	18.6	17.9	0.74
Samuel Dalembert	44	44	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	2	8	18.6	18.0	0.64	18.4	18.3	0.12
Dirk Nowitzki	56	54	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.15	3	9	-6	18.8	17.3	1.42	17.5	20.2	-2.65
DeJuan Blair	19	17	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	3	6	15.2	19.3	-4.14	18.4	18.3	0.03
Devin Harris	31	29	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	8	-4	17.3	19.1	-1.80	17.5	18.8	-1.35
Jae Crowder	19	19	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	11	-10	19.3	18.1	1.20	15.4	19.3	-3.85
Wayne Ellington	11	12	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	13	-14	18.4	18.4	0.01	14.8	19.0	-4.14
Shane Larkin	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	12	-12	7.0	18.5	-11.50	0.0	18.3	-18.33
Brandan Wright	16	17	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.20	-7	19	-26	21.3	17.6	3.71	18.2	18.4	-0.20

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	15	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-8	4	16.1	18.9	-2.81	15.8	19.0	-3.15
Diante Garrett	26	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.16	2	-14	16	19.8	17.6	2.21	20.8	17.2	3.64
Derrick Favors	43	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.15	-2	-10	8	17.7	19.1	-1.36	18.0	18.8	-0.85
Richard Jefferson	43	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-7	2	19.1	17.4	1.64	17.4	19.5	-2.08
Enes Kanter	44	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-7	2	19.0	17.5	1.43	18.7	17.9	0.74
Gordon Hayward	68	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-5	-2	18.0	20.4	-2.37	19.0	14.7	4.35
Alec Burks	47	49	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.08	-10	-2	-8	18.0	18.8	-0.84	18.2	18.6	-0.45
Trey Burke	52	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	2	-16	17.6	19.8	-2.21	17.2	20.8	-3.64
Jeremy Evans	52	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.01	-15	3	-18	19.1	16.9	2.17	19.2	16.7	2.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.2,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 119, PHX 98	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
SAS 100, UTA 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
ORL 97, MIA 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%