NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	102		Excitement	8.0 [267]		MVP	Greivis Vasquez (TOR): +35.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	98		Comeback	3.0 [648]		LVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): -12.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greivis Vasquez	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.36	0.24	0.13	0.02	15	87%	0.36	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.16	-0.01	0.17	0.00	19	48%	0.21	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.06
Jonas Valanciunas	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.01	11	63%	0.15	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.04
Terrence Ross	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07	-0.01	0.06	-0.02	9	40%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Nando De Colo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	78%	0.09	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Steve Novak	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	37%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
John Salmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	7	64%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	9	35%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Charles Hayes	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.08	-0.00	16	64%	0.22	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.06	0.02	9	77%	0.19	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.06
Jeff Adrien	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	17	51%	0.11	1	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
Chris Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.06
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	13	46%	-0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	15	44%	-0.03	2	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	6	29%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.4	25.3	14.8	29.0	2.6	40.4	137.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +43.9%

TOR +5.2%

MIL -4.5%

TOR +8.0%

MIL -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	17.8	15.5	15.1	117.2	114.0	105.2
season	15.9	15.7		107.2	101.4
opponent	15.1	15.1		109.7	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	19.6	17.3	16.3	18.0	17.8
MIL	13.1	15.5	16.4	17.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greivis Vasquez	68	67	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.27	13	-9	22	17.6	18.6	-1.01	15.1	16.8	-1.67
Jonas Valanciunas	62	62	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-6	16	17.4	18.7	-1.30	15.5	15.6	-0.13
Patrick Patterson	50	50	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-9	22	18.9	16.3	2.60	16.1	14.7	1.41
DeMar DeRozan	67	67	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.40	3	1	2	18.6	15.2	3.37	16.2	13.1	3.06
Terrence Ross	54	53	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.30	6	-2	8	17.4	18.4	-0.97	15.1	16.2	-1.13
Charles Hayes	29	29	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.25	-5	9	-14	16.3	18.6	-2.28	15.1	15.7	-0.53
Nando De Colo	33	33	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	6	-8	18.4	17.4	0.97	16.2	15.1	1.13
John Salmons	40	39	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	10	-16	16.4	19.0	-2.53	14.8	16.1	-1.27
Tyler Hansbrough	25	24	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.06	-6	10	-16	18.7	17.4	1.30	15.6	15.5	0.13
Steve Novak	7	6	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.03	-6	10	-16	18.7	17.7	1.00	13.3	15.6	-2.32

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wright	27	28	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-5	6	15.4	15.5	-0.12	19.2	17.1	2.15
John Henson	70	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.39	7	-11	18	15.3	16.4	-1.09	17.8	17.9	-0.11
Giannis Antetokounmpo	44	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	0	-4	15.7	15.2	0.49	17.1	18.5	-1.41
Ramon Sessions	76	76	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-8	12	16.0	11.8	4.17	17.9	16.9	1.01
Zaza Pachulia	16	17	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	5	-14	16.4	15.3	1.09	17.9	17.8	0.11
Jeff Adrien	75	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.41	4	-8	12	15.8	13.1	2.75	17.6	19.0	-1.42
Khris Middleton	63	64	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.22	-13	9	-22	14.7	17.6	-2.84	18.0	17.3	0.61
Brandon Knight	59	61	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.34	-10	6	-16	15.1	16.4	-1.29	17.6	18.3	-0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.75,0.69,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.59,0.59,0.37,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.52,0.43,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.4,0.25,0.36,0.16,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 90, CHA 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.45,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.63,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.53,0.39,0.39,0.2,0.16,0	91.1%
MIA 103, PHX 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.63,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.52,0.68,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.54,0.15,0.02,0	90.7%
IND 91, SEA 83	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.46,0.17,0.17,0	90.6%