NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	98		Excitement	3.9 [1039]		MVP	Derrick Favors (UTA): +16.8%
Utah Jazz	110		Comeback	1.1 [956]		LVP	Brandon Bass (BOS): -10.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.16	0.00	0.07	13	70%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	16	55%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Gerald Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Phil Pressey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.01	11	59%	0.02	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	10	43%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	13	56%	0.06	5	-0.08	6	100%	0.02
Chris Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	11	31%	-0.07	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Favors	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.20	0.02	0.05	9	91%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.17	0.01	0.04	10	83%	0.14	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.15	0.00	0.06	12	72%	0.10	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Jeremy Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Burke	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.06	16	37%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	9	55%	0.04	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Diante Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.16	0.01	-0.08	11	36%	0.03	6	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	28.0	15.6	26.4	1.7	27.4	127.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +55.5%

BOS -9.0%

BOS -6.0%

UTA +8.9%

UTA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	UTA	NBA	BOS	UTA	NBA
this game	15.0	17.0	15.1	108.9	122.2	105.2
season	15.4	16.2		101.2	102.1
opponent	14.8	15.0		109.6	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.4	16.0	15.1	13.2	15.0
UTA	18.0	13.4	15.6	21.7	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Phil Pressey	14	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.18	6	-18	24	16.1	14.8	1.30	17.9	16.9	0.99
Joel Anthony	6	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	-6	0	8.8	15.4	-6.58	14.3	17.2	-2.88
Kelly Olynyk	50	52	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.28	5	-17	22	14.1	16.1	-1.97	18.2	15.4	2.77
Chris Johnson	15	15	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.00	-5	-7	2	16.5	14.7	1.79	14.8	17.5	-2.67
Kris Humphries	39	38	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	-3	-6	16.7	13.6	3.12	15.8	17.9	-2.04
Jerryd Bayless	56	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-8	4	14.6	15.6	-1.03	17.9	15.6	2.26
Rajon Rondo	62	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-1	-10	14.3	16.5	-2.26	17.4	16.1	1.25
Brandon Bass	53	52	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.00	-13	1	-14	15.8	13.8	2.07	15.6	19.0	-3.42
Gerald Wallace	60	58	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	1	-14	15.9	13.0	2.92	15.2	20.4	-5.25
Jeff Green	75	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	1	-14	14.6	16.9	-2.27	17.5	14.7	2.83

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Burke	66	65	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.03	18	-6	24	18.0	14.3	3.67	14.6	15.9	-1.25
Richard Jefferson	57	58	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	-2	16	17.5	16.2	1.28	14.4	16.1	-1.68
Marvin Williams	42	41	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.17	19	-7	26	16.7	17.3	-0.62	15.9	14.2	1.65
Derrick Favors	53	54	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.09	8	4	4	17.9	15.8	2.10	14.5	15.7	-1.29
Alec Burks	55	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	4	4	17.3	16.5	0.83	15.0	15.0	-0.04
Gordon Hayward	68	66	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	10	-8	16.4	19.0	-2.68	15.5	13.5	2.02
Enes Kanter	49	49	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.21	-1	13	-14	17.5	16.4	1.07	14.6	15.5	-0.89
Jeremy Evans	36	36	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.17	-2	14	-16	15.5	18.1	-2.58	15.3	14.8	0.50
Diante Garrett	24	25	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	18	-24	14.3	18.0	-3.67	15.9	14.6	1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 72, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
CLE 75, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
PHX 86, SAS 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%