NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	109		Excitement	4.8 [868]		MVP	Isaiah Thomas (SAC): +18.9%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	4.0 [150]		LVP	Aaron Brooks (DEN): -20.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Thomas	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.02	0.03	16	87%	0.29	6	-0.10	6	83%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.05	0.02	23	58%	0.18	1	-0.01	9	89%	0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	16	61%	0.09	4	-0.06	12	92%	0.05
Carl Landry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Travis Outlaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray McCallum	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	4	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Jason Thompson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Acy	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	-0.05	10	29%	-0.02	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.19	0.00	0.02	11	90%	0.21	3	-0.04	8	87%	0.01
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.17	0.04	0.08	18	66%	0.13	0	0.00	5	100%	0.00
Jan Vesely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.02	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	7	21%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	2	10%	-0.06	3	-0.07	6	17%	-0.06
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.01	15	20%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.14	-0.05	0.01	12	35%	-0.07	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.8	27.3	16.3	30.4	2.5	30.6	136.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +17.1%

SAC +23.1%

SAC +1.7%

SAC +7.3%

SAC +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	12.6	15.1	105.8	88.8	105.2
season	15.4	14.0		104.5	104.5
opponent	14.9	14.7		106.4	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.7	15.7	12.5	16.7	14.8
DEN	12.6	12.6	13.6	11.6	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarcus Cousins	74	78	0.77	-0.27	1.04	-0.29	36	-22	58	13.9	17.4	-3.53	13.4	10.6	2.80
Isaiah Thomas	91	94	0.67	-0.17	0.85	-0.09	26	-12	38	14.1	20.2	-6.12	12.8	11.5	1.33
Jason Thompson	33	33	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.05	21	-7	28	14.6	15.0	-0.35	14.5	11.8	2.64
Ben McLemore	76	78	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.05	16	-2	18	14.6	15.5	-0.91	13.0	11.6	1.38
Rudy Gay	81	85	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.05	19	-5	24	14.6	15.6	-0.95	12.8	12.0	0.85
Reggie Evans	17	17	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.04	5	9	-4	13.9	15.0	-1.15	14.4	12.3	2.05
Quincy Acy	26	27	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.11	-3	17	-20	13.5	15.3	-1.80	11.6	13.0	-1.43
Aaron Gray	9	9	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.18	-7	21	-28	15.8	14.8	1.02	11.3	12.7	-1.41
Travis Outlaw	4	5	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	16	-18	11.5	15.0	-3.48	15.2	12.5	2.70
Ray McCallum	35	37	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.20	-12	26	-38	17.6	13.4	4.17	11.1	13.4	-2.36
Derrick Williams	45	47	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.17	-12	26	-38	16.3	13.7	2.60	11.2	13.8	-2.60
Carl Landry	24	25	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	0.23	-17	31	-48	18.0	13.9	4.06	10.4	13.3	-2.85

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jan Vesely	36	34	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.10	10	-24	34	11.0	13.4	-2.41	14.6	14.9	-0.29
JJ Hickson	37	36	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.06	1	-15	16	11.9	13.0	-1.08	15.7	14.4	1.35
Quincy Miller	57	51	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.39	14	-28	42	12.3	13.0	-0.70	15.5	14.2	1.28
Anthony Randolph	8	9	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-18	22	8.6	12.9	-4.32	15.9	14.7	1.14
Evan Fournier	80	76	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.21	4	-18	22	12.3	13.5	-1.19	15.0	14.4	0.59
Randy Foye	74	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.12	-2	-12	10	11.6	14.9	-3.34	15.8	12.3	3.48
Wilson Chandler	65	66	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.19	-25	11	-36	12.6	12.6	0.05	14.8	15.0	-0.24
Timofey Mozgov	42	39	-0.56	0.07	-0.63	0.02	-20	6	-26	14.4	11.5	2.85	13.3	15.8	-2.56
Kenneth Faried	65	63	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	0.07	-26	12	-38	13.7	11.0	2.72	14.5	15.3	-0.79
Aaron Brooks	71	67	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	0.13	-30	16	-46	13.9	10.1	3.83	13.9	16.6	-2.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.75,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.29,0.23,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 110, CHI 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.35,0.24,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.5%
DAL 104, HOU 81	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.4%
LAC 108, OKC 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.77,0.7,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%