NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	117		Excitement	7.0 [422]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +51.1%
Dallas Mavericks	106		Comeback	2.5 [548]		LVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): -19.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.51	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.38,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51	0.29	0.23	0.01	23	78%	0.58	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.17	0.04	0.09	9	86%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	7	65%	0.11	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.00	0.04	12	73%	0.15	3	-0.10	6	67%	-0.02
Greg Oden	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	0.00	8	62%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.00	14	63%	0.14	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.03
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	52%	0.14	2	-0.11	11	91%	0.05
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	9	60%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bernard James	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Larkin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	3	90%	0.12	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.04
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.04	3	83%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	8	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	13	43%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	13	40%	0.01	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.08	0.02	9	39%	-0.08	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	31.5	16.4	28.3	2.4	31.2	137.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +67.7%

DAL -14.9%

DAL -29.9%

MIA +25.2%

MIA +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	14.3	16.5	15.1	125.8	112.8	105.2
season	15.6	15.3		109.7	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.8		107.0	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	14.5	13.7	14.5	14.3
DAL	15.5	16.1	16.8	17.5	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	77	77	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.18	19	-8	27	13.9	16.1	-2.11	15.9	19.2	-3.37
Mario Chalmers	59	58	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.11	17	-6	23	13.2	16.2	-3.03	17.2	15.3	1.90
Chris Bosh	63	63	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.15	10	1	9	13.6	15.9	-2.30	17.8	13.8	3.94
Chris Andersen	51	51	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.24	6	5	1	15.9	12.4	3.43	15.9	17.1	-1.22
Greg Oden	11	11	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.05	13	-2	15	12.1	14.6	-2.52	17.2	16.4	0.80
Ray Allen	39	40	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	7	-3	16.3	12.9	3.39	16.2	16.7	-0.44
Norris Cole	40	43	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.08	2	9	-7	15.8	13.2	2.66	16.0	16.9	-0.97
Shane Battier	47	47	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.08	1	10	-9	13.1	15.6	-2.48	16.3	16.7	-0.45
Dwyane Wade	66	67	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.15	-9	20	-29	13.6	16.0	-2.38	16.8	15.8	0.98
Michael Beasley	12	13	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	19	-27	18.6	13.7	4.90	14.0	16.9	-2.88

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	26	27	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.08	9	-20	29	15.3	16.9	-1.62	16.4	13.5	2.90
Dirk Nowitzki	72	71	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.06	7	-18	25	16.3	16.9	-0.56	14.8	12.8	1.96
Samuel Dalembert	38	39	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.08	1	-12	13	16.8	16.3	0.52	12.9	15.3	-2.39
Bernard James	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	5.0	16.6	-11.60	15.5	14.3	1.21
Wayne Ellington	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	5.0	16.6	-11.60	15.5	14.3	1.21
Shane Larkin	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	5.0	16.6	-11.60	15.5	14.3	1.21
Devin Harris	37	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.16	5	-16	21	16.2	16.6	-0.39	16.3	13.2	3.08
DeJuan Blair	12	12	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-8	5	13.8	16.9	-3.03	16.2	14.0	2.23
Brandan Wright	44	42	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.19	-9	-2	-7	16.9	16.1	0.85	15.0	13.7	1.34
Vince Carter	52	50	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.08	-13	2	-15	16.0	17.0	-0.99	14.9	13.6	1.32
Jose Calderon	58	58	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.08	-20	9	-29	16.6	16.2	0.42	13.1	16.3	-3.12
Monta Ellis	74	72	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.04	-20	9	-29	16.9	15.1	1.75	13.7	16.6	-2.92
Shawn Marion	54	54	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.11	-21	10	-31	17.8	14.7	3.01	12.9	16.3	-3.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.41,0.37,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.13,0.07,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 101, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.27,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0	91.9%
GSW 105, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.31,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.72,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.52,0.47,0.57,0.47,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.15,0.1,0.01,0	91.7%
MIL 103, MIN 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.43,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.28,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.03,0,0,0,0	91.7%