NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	94		Excitement	5.2 [808]		MVP	Marvin Williams (UTA): +19.9%
Utah Jazz	79		Comeback	1.4 [896]		LVP	Trey Burke (UTA): -18.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.04	-0.00	15	62%	0.18	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
John Salmons	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.00	-0.00	9	72%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	14	60%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.02	9	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.01	12	41%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Terrence Ross	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	0.00	7	37%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	8	12%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.15	0.03	-0.02	16	64%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	14	61%	0.09	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Diante Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	6	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	0.00	11	33%	-0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Trey Burke	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.16	-0.05	-0.04	14	29%	-0.12	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	26.1	15.5	23.2	1.7	26.2	116.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +30.6%

UTA -3.4%

TOR +9.5%

TOR +10.7%

TOR +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	UTA	NBA	TOR	UTA	NBA
this game	17.4	18.2	15.1	114.6	98.8	105.2
season	15.9	16.2		107.2	102.1
opponent	14.8	15.1		109.6	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.0	14.1	19.7	18.7	17.4
UTA	16.4	21.9	14.6	20.2	18.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	62	62	0.84	-0.34	1.17	-0.04	30	-15	45	16.7	19.5	-2.86	19.3	14.3	5.03
Jonas Valanciunas	54	53	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.03	19	-4	23	17.0	18.1	-1.14	18.3	18.0	0.26
Amir Johnson	50	48	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.06	21	-6	27	16.5	18.8	-2.33	19.1	16.8	2.27
Greivis Vasquez	46	44	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.04	9	6	3	17.8	16.9	0.89	18.8	17.4	1.38
John Salmons	54	52	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.11	5	10	-5	17.3	17.6	-0.33	18.3	17.9	0.49
Terrence Ross	40	38	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	10	-5	18.8	16.0	2.80	17.2	19.0	-1.79
Kyle Lowry	44	44	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	19	-23	16.8	18.1	-1.28	16.6	20.1	-3.57
Patrick Patterson	32	32	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	21	-27	18.8	16.5	2.33	16.8	19.1	-2.27
Charles Hayes	28	27	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	19	-23	18.1	17.0	1.14	18.0	18.3	-0.26

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Diante Garrett	21	20	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-14	13	17.6	18.4	-0.75	20.3	16.5	3.85
Richard Jefferson	36	36	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-14	13	17.2	19.0	-1.78	16.8	17.9	-1.09
Brandon Rush	20	20	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.01	-4	-11	7	20.6	17.4	3.23	18.0	17.2	0.81
Rudy Gobert	51	54	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.17	1	-16	17	17.3	19.8	-2.48	17.7	16.8	0.86
Marvin Williams	67	70	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-11	7	17.0	24.4	-7.41	17.5	16.9	0.55
Alec Burks	47	49	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.08	-6	-9	3	18.5	17.7	0.76	17.9	16.7	1.21
Trey Burke	59	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	-1	-13	18.4	17.6	0.75	16.5	20.3	-3.85
Enes Kanter	33	32	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.06	-19	4	-23	20.6	16.4	4.19	17.0	17.6	-0.64
Gordon Hayward	66	67	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	0.07	-27	12	-39	18.4	16.9	1.51	17.0	18.9	-1.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 99, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.05,0,0.01,0,0	95.1%
TOR 104, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.38,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.03,0,0	94.3%
MIA 103, WAS 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.07,0,0,0	94.3%