NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	5.2 [790]		MVP	Shane Battier (MIA): +13.7%
New York Knicks	91		Comeback	1.3 [941]		LVP	Raymond Felton (NYK): -13.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.01	0.01	8	89%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.07	-0.02	15	67%	0.24	5	-0.12	3	67%	-0.02
Norris Cole	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.01	5	90%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.00	0.04	22	60%	0.13	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04
Chris Andersen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.03	0.06	2	77%	0.05	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.03
Mario Chalmers	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	61%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Toney Douglas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	4	37%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	0.01	-0.03	11	18%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	14	61%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.02	0.02	11	67%	0.10	2	-0.06	8	50%	-0.05
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toure Murry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pablo Prigioni	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Tyler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	0.02	17	55%	0.11	7	-0.17	13	69%	-0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	9	39%	-0.06	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	31.6	18.5	34.3	1.8	31.6	144.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +24.2%

MIA +9.8%

MIA +0.9%

MIA +14.4%

MIA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	16.1	16.4	15.1	120.5	102.2	105.2
season	15.6	16.0		109.7	106.4
opponent	15.4	15.8		107.6	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.0	15.3	15.4	16.7	16.1
NYK	15.8	17.4	18.0	14.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	47	49	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.02	17	-2	19	15.5	16.8	-1.29	16.4	16.5	-0.09
Dwyane Wade	63	64	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.08	13	2	11	15.7	17.2	-1.55	17.0	15.2	1.79
Chris Bosh	70	69	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.02	14	1	13	16.0	16.6	-0.65	16.6	15.8	0.84
LeBron James	73	72	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.01	14	1	13	16.3	14.9	1.40	15.8	19.0	-3.15
Chris Andersen	53	55	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	6	3	16.0	16.3	-0.28	16.5	16.4	0.11
Shane Battier	54	54	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	10	-5	16.3	15.7	0.58	16.3	16.6	-0.30
Ray Allen	27	28	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.00	5	10	-5	14.9	16.6	-1.79	18.4	15.6	2.78
Mario Chalmers	51	50	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	15	-15	17.0	14.9	2.12	16.1	16.9	-0.89
Toney Douglas	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	16	-17	31.0	15.9	15.08	9.0	16.6	-7.62
Michael Beasley	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	16	-17	31.0	15.9	15.08	9.0	16.6	-7.62

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	27	27	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-17	19	16.9	16.2	0.68	15.5	16.4	-0.88
Metta World Peace	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-16	17	9.0	16.6	-7.62	31.0	15.9	15.08
Toure Murry	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-16	17	9.0	16.6	-7.62	31.0	15.9	15.08
Cole Aldrich	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-16	17	9.0	16.6	-7.62	31.0	15.9	15.08
Jeremy Tyler	14	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-15	15	19.5	15.9	3.62	15.5	16.2	-0.65
Amar'e Stoudemire	8	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-10	5	23.2	15.8	7.47	14.1	16.3	-2.12
Pablo Prigioni	47	47	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	-7	-1	17.5	15.2	2.29	15.9	16.3	-0.47
Carmelo Anthony	75	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	-5	-5	15.9	19.6	-3.79	16.4	14.2	2.13
Tyson Chandler	63	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	-5	-5	15.7	18.2	-2.52	16.3	15.6	0.63
Raymond Felton	61	62	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	-3	-9	16.7	15.8	0.92	16.1	16.2	-0.09
J.R. Smith	77	76	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.04	-16	1	-17	15.9	20.1	-4.20	15.8	17.7	-1.92
Tim Hardaway Jr.	67	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.01	-19	4	-23	16.5	16.4	0.05	16.0	16.5	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.3,0.42,0.4,0.27,0.15,0.21,0.13,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 85, MIL 71	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.34,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.05,0,0,0,0	94.3%
MEM 112, BKN 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.06,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.9%
LAL 107, DEN 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%