NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	91		Excitement	10.1 [74]		MVP	Jeff Green (BOS): +38.5%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	2.5 [334]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -22.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0.39	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.39	0.10	0.29	0.00	11	59%	0.39	0	0.00	15	87%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	6	64%	0.12	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Avery Bradley	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.11,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.05	-0.02	21	39%	0.06	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Jerryd Bayless	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0	0.05	-0.04	0.01	15	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Wallace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.05	0.01	8	47%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Phil Pressey	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.14	-0.06	-0.00	7	14%	-0.14	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.11,-0.23	-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	10	30%	-0.05	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Davis	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.05	0.21	-0.00	16	52%	0.26	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.24	0.24	0.04	0.19	-0.01	10	56%	0.36	2	-0.12	12	67%	0.04
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	0.01	16	54%	0.27	3	-0.20	5	80%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.02
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	8	43%	-0.01	3	-0.13	5	100%	0.03
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	0.01	10	53%	0.10	7	-0.27	10	90%	0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.5	31.2	16.7	27.3	2.4	44.3	147.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +55.0%

ORL +16.7%

ORL +7.7%

BOS -40.5%

ORL +11.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.1	15.7	15.1	96.8	100.0	105.2
season	15.4	15.3		101.2	100.4
opponent	15.0	15.0		105.9	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.1	15.6	14.8	14.9	15.1
ORL	16.2	13.2	17.9	15.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wallace	35	37	0.24	-0.74	0.97	0.27	-1	-1	0	15.6	14.8	0.72	15.6	15.8	-0.20
Jerryd Bayless	15	15	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.01	3	-5	8	16.9	14.8	2.08	16.5	15.5	1.01
Phil Pressey	44	45	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.17	-6	4	-10	15.2	15.0	0.25	14.9	16.4	-1.55
Kris Humphries	55	54	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.38	11	-13	24	15.6	14.4	1.21	16.3	14.8	1.54
Jared Sullinger	62	60	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.36	10	-12	22	15.0	15.3	-0.30	15.9	15.3	0.60
Kelly Olynyk	34	34	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.09	-12	10	-22	14.4	15.5	-1.10	14.8	16.2	-1.46
Jeff Green	71	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.56	3	-5	8	14.8	16.1	-1.34	15.7	15.5	0.21
Rajon Rondo	43	41	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.62	3	-5	8	15.0	15.2	-0.22	16.0	15.5	0.51
Avery Bradley	74	74	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.44	-6	4	-10	14.9	16.1	-1.25	15.9	15.1	0.80
Brandon Bass	37	38	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.20	-15	13	-28	15.2	15.1	0.12	15.3	16.0	-0.72

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	71	71	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.48	9	-7	16	15.7	15.7	0.01	14.4	17.2	-2.78
Victor Oladipo	75	76	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.50	4	-2	6	16.1	14.2	1.89	15.2	14.8	0.35
Jameer Nelson	76	78	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.51	-1	3	-4	15.6	15.9	-0.31	14.9	16.0	-1.06
Arron Afflalo	84	85	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	4	-6	15.9	13.7	2.24	15.2	14.8	0.38
Tobias Harris	67	70	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.53	-9	11	-20	16.6	13.5	3.09	15.5	14.0	1.44
E'Twaun Moore	44	43	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	-3	8	14.7	16.5	-1.78	15.3	15.0	0.26
Kyle O'Quinn	48	47	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.14	4	-2	6	14.5	17.0	-2.50	15.6	14.6	0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.62,0.55,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.48,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.68,0.63,0.77,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 104, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.58,1	90.8%
NYK 102, PHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.78,0.68,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.52,0.44,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.63,0.7,0.53,0.78,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.26,1	89.9%
HOU 98, NJN 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.55,0.45,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.73,0.81,0.63,0.67,0.72,1	89.5%