NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	110		Excitement	6.6 [513]		MVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): +17.6%
Phoenix Suns	107		Comeback	1.0 [860]		LVP	Gerald Green (PHX): -18.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.05	0.00	9	80%	0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Larkin	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.17	0.13	0.04	-0.00	8	86%	0.23	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.01	16	62%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Brandan Wright	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	6	62%	0.10	3	-0.05	1	0%	-0.03
Monta Ellis	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	0.00	20	52%	0.10	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.12	0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	8	25%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	9	44%	0.00	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.01	15	66%	0.24	4	-0.15	5	100%	0.03
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	11	54%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
PJ Tucker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.01	8	69%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	43%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	-0.00	0.11	-0.03	0.09	20	61%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Archie Goodwin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Miles Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	7	40%	-0.04	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	13	41%	-0.09	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.3	31.4	15.6	24.3	1.8	41.2	143.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +65.3%

PHX -10.6%

PHX -5.8%

PHX -1.9%

DAL +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	PHX	NBA	DAL	PHX	NBA
this game	14.9	14.7	15.1	114.6	108.1	105.2
season	15.3	14.7		109.0	107.7
opponent	14.9	15.0		105.0	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.5	14.8	14.0	17.2	14.9
PHX	14.2	16.4	15.3	12.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	73	74	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.35	12	-9	21	14.7	15.5	-0.82	14.6	15.0	-0.37
Shane Larkin	52	54	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.47	8	-5	13	14.9	14.8	0.07	14.7	14.7	0.04
Monta Ellis	78	80	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.34	1	2	-1	15.1	13.9	1.19	14.4	15.8	-1.43
DeJuan Blair	22	21	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.04	9	-6	15	15.1	14.8	0.31	13.5	15.0	-1.48
Jae Crowder	30	31	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.19	2	1	1	14.2	15.1	-0.90	15.1	14.5	0.55
Dirk Nowitzki	69	71	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.12	4	-1	5	14.8	14.9	-0.05	15.0	13.8	1.21
Samuel Dalembert	41	43	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	-1	5	13.9	15.6	-1.66	15.6	14.0	1.58
Vince Carter	43	47	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.23	-7	10	-17	15.4	14.4	0.94	14.3	15.0	-0.70
Brandan Wright	32	33	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.27	-10	13	-23	16.4	14.1	2.28	14.8	14.6	0.20
Jose Calderon	40	41	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.03	-8	11	-19	14.3	15.2	-0.95	14.5	14.8	-0.38

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Markieff Morris	66	62	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.40	14	-17	31	14.5	15.0	-0.42	15.6	13.4	2.19
Ish Smith	41	39	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-7	11	15.1	14.4	0.78	15.8	14.2	1.63
Archie Goodwin	16	15	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-1	-1	14.3	14.8	-0.45	12.5	15.3	-2.75
Alex Len	3	2	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	2	-7	17.0	14.6	2.39	10.5	14.9	-4.45
Marcus Morris	42	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-5	7	15.0	14.4	0.59	15.8	14.2	1.62
PJ Tucker	75	73	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.31	2	-5	7	14.0	16.7	-2.72	15.0	14.4	0.55
Miles Plumlee	43	43	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.03	-12	9	-21	15.9	13.8	2.12	14.0	15.6	-1.59
Channing Frye	62	62	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	2	-7	14.5	15.1	-0.63	14.2	16.0	-1.77
Goran Dragic	80	77	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.37	-5	2	-7	14.2	16.5	-2.28	14.5	16.3	-1.82
Gerald Green	67	66	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.36	-8	5	-13	15.0	14.0	1.06	15.1	14.4	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.33,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.18,0.15,0.01,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 86, DET 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	94.2%
CHA 103, TOR 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.37,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.23,0.2,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.18,0.14,0.04,0.02,0,0	94.0%
TOR 117, SAC 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.05,0	93.8%