NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	117		Excitement	7.1 [396]		MVP	Nate Robinson (DEN): +28.9%
Denver Nuggets	109		Comeback	1.7 [271]		LVP	Quincy Miller (DEN): -12.0%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.22	0.11	0.10	-0.00	16	62%	0.25	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.03
Jarrett Jack	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.00	7	76%	0.18	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Tristan Thompson	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.04	0.02	9	83%	0.17	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
CJ Miles	0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.13	0.02	0.04	12	68%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.02	17	44%	0.08	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Anderson Varejao	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Earl Clark	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	14	30%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Zeller	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	4	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.17	0.12	0.00	11	86%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	17	57%	0.08	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.03
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	16	49%	0.04	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.06	-0.00	15	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	8	37%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	3.2	22.8	16.4	27.2	2.4	38.7	141.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +14.1%

CLE +17.8%

CLE +16.3%

CLE +2.1%

DEN -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	DEN	NBA	CLE	DEN	NBA
this game	15.9	13.6	15.1	119.4	112.4	105.2
season	15.2	14.0		102.8	104.5
opponent	14.9	15.3		106.4	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	17.3	15.2	15.2	16.0	15.9
DEN	14.7	14.2	12.5	13.3	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Miles	79	77	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-6	20	15.6	17.1	-1.49	13.6	13.8	-0.29
Anderson Varejao	60	62	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.12	14	-6	20	16.2	15.4	0.80	13.7	13.4	0.34
Kyrie Irving	66	65	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-1	10	16.3	15.2	1.12	13.8	13.2	0.69
Tristan Thompson	74	73	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	0	8	16.4	14.3	2.09	13.6	13.6	-0.01
Dion Waiters	57	57	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	0	8	15.7	16.2	-0.45	13.8	13.3	0.54
Luol Deng	60	60	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.33	-7	15	-22	16.5	15.0	1.44	13.5	13.8	-0.35
Earl Clark	25	24	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	8	-8	14.0	16.6	-2.62	13.6	13.6	0.01
Jarrett Jack	32	32	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	9	-10	15.2	16.3	-1.12	13.2	13.8	-0.69
Tyler Zeller	37	35	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.13	-5	13	-18	15.7	16.0	-0.33	13.4	13.7	-0.34

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Fournier	33	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-9	10	13.8	13.5	0.35	15.2	16.3	-1.03
Quincy Miller	27	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-3	-2	13.9	13.5	0.32	15.1	16.2	-1.06
Timofey Mozgov	53	53	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.16	0	-8	8	13.6	13.6	0.05	16.0	15.8	0.28
Kenneth Faried	45	45	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.01	-8	0	-8	14.2	13.1	1.13	15.5	16.3	-0.78
Ty Lawson	80	80	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-5	2	13.6	13.6	-0.03	16.2	14.7	1.52
Nate Robinson	41	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	-1	-6	14.0	13.4	0.58	15.1	16.5	-1.37
Randy Foye	70	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.27	-4	-4	0	13.4	14.1	-0.68	16.0	15.6	0.41
Wilson Chandler	71	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-5	2	13.0	15.2	-2.20	16.6	14.0	2.65
JJ Hickson	65	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.11	-11	3	-14	13.6	13.6	-0.01	16.0	15.7	0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.2,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.03,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 99, DEN 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.08,0,0,0	94.1%
MIN 80, SAS 71	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.25,0.07,0.02,0,0	94.0%
BKN 104, TOR 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	93.8%