NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	123		Excitement	5.9 [647]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +21.9%
Miami Heat	114		Comeback	1.2 [476]		LVP	LeBron James (MIA): -9.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.20	0.01	-0.01	22	77%	0.31	4	-0.09	3	67%	0.01
David Lee	0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.19	0.04	0.05	17	78%	0.25	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.03	0.00	6	79%	0.16	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Marreese Speights	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	67%	0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.02	5	60%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	15	53%	0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	-0.00	0.01	5	110%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.03	10	68%	0.09	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	4	64%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.04	18	58%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	4	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.02	16	49%	0.01	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	4	56%	0.02	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	16	65%	0.12	8	-0.21	8	62%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.6	36.8	7.0	25.8	1.8	31.3	129.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +49.3%

MIA -10.4%

GSW +12.3%

MIA -2.4%

GSW +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	14.5	13.8	15.1	121.8	111.8	105.2
season	14.2	15.6		105.9	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.3		105.1	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.7	13.8	14.2	16.5	14.5
MIA	15.1	12.4	14.6	13.5	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	92	94	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.20	16	-7	23	14.5	15.0	-0.51	13.8	14.2	-0.44
David Lee	74	74	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.11	17	-8	25	14.9	13.6	1.24	14.3	12.7	1.51
Andre Iguodala	70	70	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.07	16	-7	23	15.1	13.3	1.84	14.1	13.3	0.82
Klay Thompson	79	80	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.12	12	-3	15	14.5	14.7	-0.25	14.1	12.8	1.36
Andrew Bogut	39	38	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.01	14	-5	19	13.7	15.1	-1.37	14.6	13.4	1.13
Draymond Green	53	54	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.16	-2	11	-13	14.7	14.4	0.34	13.9	13.7	0.22
Harrison Barnes	58	57	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.23	-9	18	-27	14.7	14.3	0.36	13.2	14.6	-1.43
Kent Bazemore	10	11	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	14	-19	14.1	14.6	-0.48	10.9	14.2	-3.29
Toney Douglas	7	8	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.08	-6	15	-21	14.7	14.5	0.19	9.7	14.2	-4.44
Marreese Speights	23	24	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.14	-8	17	-25	12.9	15.0	-2.10	13.8	13.8	-0.01

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Beasley	27	29	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.06	4	-13	17	14.1	13.8	0.31	14.3	14.6	-0.27
Chris Andersen	38	38	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.13	6	-15	21	13.6	14.0	-0.46	14.3	14.7	-0.39
Ray Allen	43	44	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.20	7	-16	23	13.4	14.2	-0.73	14.6	14.5	0.10
Norris Cole	56	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-6	3	13.4	14.4	-0.96	14.5	14.5	-0.02
Shane Battier	46	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.03	-11	2	-13	14.8	13.1	1.67	14.2	14.8	-0.58
Mario Chalmers	67	67	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	4	-17	13.9	13.7	0.20	14.4	14.7	-0.30
Chris Bosh	73	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.12	-13	4	-17	13.6	14.5	-0.94	14.7	14.2	0.43
LeBron James	85	82	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	2	-13	13.6	14.9	-1.32	14.8	13.6	1.18
Dwyane Wade	75	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	2	-13	14.4	12.4	1.95	14.6	14.3	0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.23,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.17,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 99, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0	94.3%
MIL 94, NYK 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.25,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.19,0.08,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.2%
DEN 120, SAC 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.09,0.17,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.0%