NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	120		Excitement	6.3 [536]		MVP	Marcus Thornton (SAC): +27.7%
Sacramento Kings	113		Comeback	1.3 [937]		LVP	DeMarcus Cousins (SAC): -24.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.19	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19	0.20	0.05	0.06	11	88%	0.21	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.06	-0.03	11	73%	0.18	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.03	0.02	9	71%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.02	15	59%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Corey Brewer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	16	55%	0.09	3	-0.08	12	50%	-0.07
JaVale McGee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	53%	0.05	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Wilson Chandler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	7	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	6	37%	-0.04	3	-0.08	4	25%	-0.06

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.22	0.04	-0.02	21	71%	0.29	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.02	0.05	13	66%	0.14	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.10	-0.08	0.06	11	82%	0.06	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	0.07	9	61%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.19	-0.07	-0.02	12	24%	-0.17	3	-0.08	10	60%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	24.4	15.4	30.7	1.7	31.2	129.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +42.2%

SAC -10.0%

SAC -5.1%

DEN +22.9%

DEN +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	14.3	14.6	15.4	121.2	113.0	104.1
season	14.4	15.0		108.4	104.7
opponent	15.2	15.4		109.4	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.4	13.2	14.1	14.7	14.3
SAC	14.6	15.6	14.7	13.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	74	76	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-7	21	14.5	13.8	0.66	13.8	17.1	-3.25
Kenneth Faried	43	42	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.09	20	-13	33	14.4	14.3	0.15	16.2	13.5	2.72
Danilo Gallinari	77	76	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.27	6	1	5	14.7	13.1	1.54	14.4	15.3	-0.90
Andre Iguodala	70	70	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	-3	13	13.8	15.7	-1.87	14.4	15.0	-0.56
Kosta Koufos	51	52	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.08	8	-1	9	14.2	14.5	-0.28	13.0	16.3	-3.31
Andre Miller	55	56	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.26	-3	10	-13	14.7	13.8	0.93	14.4	14.9	-0.49
Corey Brewer	40	41	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.14	-1	8	-9	14.5	14.2	0.32	16.2	13.5	2.65
JaVale McGee	41	42	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.24	-7	14	-21	14.1	14.5	-0.44	16.4	13.3	3.01
Wilson Chandler	44	45	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.24	-12	19	-31	14.0	14.6	-0.68	14.1	15.0	-0.87

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	39	37	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.16	5	-12	17	16.7	13.3	3.37	14.5	14.2	0.29
Patrick Patterson	21	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.12	2	-9	11	18.4	13.6	4.83	14.3	14.3	-0.06
Jimmer Fredette	23	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-6	5	18.3	13.5	4.85	14.0	14.4	-0.39
Marcus Thornton	74	72	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.36	9	-16	25	14.2	15.7	-1.41	14.2	14.6	-0.41
James Johnson	14	15	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-4	1	18.7	13.9	4.77	14.3	14.3	-0.00
Jason Thompson	61	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-3	-1	13.4	16.6	-3.20	14.5	14.1	0.36
John Salmons	67	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.16	-7	0	-7	14.0	15.8	-1.85	14.4	14.2	0.12
Isaiah Thomas	74	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.19	-7	0	-7	13.5	17.8	-4.32	14.5	13.9	0.66
DeMarcus Cousins	59	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	6	-19	14.1	15.3	-1.16	13.8	15.0	-1.20
Tyreke Evans	68	67	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.19	-16	9	-25	13.9	16.1	-2.23	14.5	13.9	0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.09,0.17,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 107, MIL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.01,0	94.6%
HOU 108, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.02,0.02,0	94.5%
MEM 92, PHX 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.4%