NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	108		Excitement	5.6 [717]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +25.9%
Los Angeles Clippers	103		Comeback	1.3 [748]		LVP	Chris Kaman (LAC): -10.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26	0.22	0.04	0.00	18	71%	0.28	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.03
Rafer Alston	0.22	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.22	0.16	0.08	0.02	13	76%	0.27	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Shane Battier	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	0.01	5	79%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Luther Head	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.02	11	50%	0.06	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Bonzi Wells	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	12	46%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.03	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	16	57%	0.12	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	13	63%	0.09	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Tim Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.03	12	58%	0.06	2	-0.07	9	100%	0.04
Daniel Ewing	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	16	49%	0.07	5	-0.17	9	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	1.0	32.6	14.8	29.2	2.6	37.5	146.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +47.1%

LAC -10.0%

LAC -4.2%

HOU +12.6%

HOU +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	LAC	NBA	HOU	LAC	NBA
this game	15.2	15.1	15.4	111.3	110.8	104.5
season	15.6	15.7		103.6	103.3
opponent	15.4	15.7		103.6	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.0	16.2	15.2	14.2	15.2
LAC	15.0	13.7	16.1	15.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	82	79	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-9	23	15.2	14.9	0.37	15.5	13.1	2.43
Rafer Alston	70	68	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.29	9	-4	13	14.7	16.4	-1.66	15.5	14.1	1.45
Yao Ming	76	74	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-5	15	15.2	15.1	0.04	15.8	12.4	3.42
Luther Head	84	80	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.24	5	0	5	15.0	16.1	-1.04	14.7	18.0	-3.32
Charles Hayes	48	46	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.06	13	-8	21	15.5	14.8	0.68	14.9	15.4	-0.45
Juwan Howard	53	51	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.43	-9	14	-23	15.0	15.4	-0.34	14.9	15.4	-0.48
Dikembe Mutombo	17	15	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	9	-13	14.6	15.3	-0.64	13.1	15.5	-2.39
Bonzi Wells	55	52	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.28	-13	18	-31	15.9	14.2	1.65	14.8	15.6	-0.80

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Ewing	10	12	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-7	9	12.8	15.4	-2.62	16.2	15.0	1.13
Tim Thomas	8	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-2	-1	15.2	15.1	0.12	15.7	15.1	0.58
Aaron Williams	24	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.12	2	-7	9	15.3	15.1	0.26	15.2	15.2	0.02
Quinton Ross	51	52	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	6	-17	15.4	14.9	0.52	15.2	15.2	-0.00
Corey Maggette	51	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.37	2	-7	9	15.8	14.4	1.43	15.0	15.3	-0.31
Elton Brand	85	89	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.33	-1	-4	3	14.6	20.7	-6.14	15.1	16.4	-1.31
Cuttino Mobley	78	83	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-6	7	14.9	16.3	-1.34	15.2	14.9	0.37
Shaun Livingston	84	86	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.33	-7	2	-9	15.2	14.2	1.02	15.1	16.0	-0.93
Chris Kaman	74	76	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.24	-10	5	-15	15.5	13.7	1.76	15.2	14.9	0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 120, SAC 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.09,0.17,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.5%
DEN 108, PHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0	94.3%
HOU 112, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.15,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	94.3%