NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	104		Excitement	7.7 [297]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +40.1%
San Antonio Spurs	112		Comeback	5.5 [567]		LVP	Marco Belinelli (SAS): -12.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Thomas	0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.28	0.17	0.11	-0.00	17	75%	0.32	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Rudy Gay	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.06	0.09	-0.01	20	52%	0.16	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.02	0.06	23	53%	0.07	0	0.00	9	78%	0.02
Derrick Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Thornton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Acy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.09	-0.01	8	41%	-0.08	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Ben McLemore	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	7	36%	-0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.19	0.21	-0.00	16	74%	0.43	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24	0.24	0.16	0.10	0.02	14	71%	0.24	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.16,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.01	0.14	0.00	17	49%	0.17	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.02
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	-0.00	8	61%	0.10	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.03	0.02	6	79%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	-0.03	10	35%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.01	11	18%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.0	26.2	15.7	24.2	2.6	32.4	127.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.3%

SAS +5.2%

SAC -15.9%

SAS +20.4%

SAC -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	16.2	14.8	15.1	113.0	119.1	105.2
season	15.4	15.0		104.5	109.8
opponent	15.0	14.7		101.1	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.3	17.0	15.0	17.6	16.2
SAS	14.1	14.3	16.3	14.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Williams	26	27	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.05	-1	-7	6	15.8	16.3	-0.47	14.2	15.0	-0.81
Marcus Thornton	35	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.18	-12	4	-16	16.6	15.9	0.67	13.4	15.6	-2.27
Quincy Acy	13	11	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	2	-12	16.2	16.2	0.05	15.2	14.7	0.43
DeMarcus Cousins	69	72	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.34	4	-12	16	15.8	17.4	-1.61	15.6	12.3	3.24
Jimmer Fredette	23	22	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	2	-12	17.1	15.9	1.26	14.4	14.9	-0.57
Isaiah Thomas	69	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-10	12	15.9	17.1	-1.26	14.9	14.4	0.57
Travis Outlaw	24	25	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.16	-15	7	-22	16.9	15.9	0.99	12.0	15.8	-3.87
Rudy Gay	73	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.40	3	-11	14	16.0	16.7	-0.70	15.3	12.7	2.58
Ben McLemore	57	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.44	4	-12	16	15.9	16.6	-0.67	15.6	13.4	2.27
Jason Thompson	71	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.34	-5	-3	-2	16.6	14.8	1.78	14.6	15.3	-0.68

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	50	49	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.15	17	-9	26	14.4	15.3	-0.89	16.4	15.9	0.52
Manu Ginobili	60	56	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.25	13	-5	18	15.0	14.4	0.65	16.5	15.7	0.76
Tony Parker	68	67	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.37	0	8	-8	15.3	13.4	1.90	16.3	16.0	0.25
Tim Duncan	63	61	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.41	-5	13	-18	15.8	12.8	2.97	16.1	16.4	-0.26
Kawhi Leonard	57	54	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.37	-5	13	-18	15.0	14.5	0.42	15.7	16.8	-1.12
Danny Green	39	40	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.12	11	-3	14	14.7	14.8	-0.09	17.3	15.3	1.93
Patty Mills	26	25	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.10	8	0	8	13.4	15.3	-1.90	16.0	16.3	-0.25
Aron Baynes	22	22	0.07	0.42	-0.35	-0.16	8	0	8	14.3	15.0	-0.69	14.9	16.6	-1.68
Tiago Splitter	53	52	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	12	-16	14.2	15.5	-1.27	16.6	15.6	0.95
Cory Joseph	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	5.0	14.9	-9.90	7.0	16.3	-9.29
Marco Belinelli	31	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	11	-14	14.4	15.0	-0.56	15.4	16.6	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.24,0.33,0.2,0.55,0.77,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 104, POR 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.41,0.48,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.18,0.34,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.46,0.68,0.99,1	93.7%
NJN 86, CHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.36,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.27,0.31,0.55,0.76,1,1	92.6%
NYK 86, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.15,0.1,0.17,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.77,0.91,1	91.7%