NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	111		Excitement	5.3 [773]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +18.7%
Houston Rockets	104		Comeback	3.4 [199]		LVP	Francisco Garcia (HOU): -8.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.17	0.03	0.02	18	69%	0.21	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.02
Jae Crowder	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	7	79%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.01	8	89%	0.19	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.02	-0.02	12	62%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Shawn Marion	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gal Mekel	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	16	43%	0.04	4	-0.12	10	80%	-0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.01	16	64%	0.17	4	-0.07	13	69%	-0.01
Terrence Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.03	13	69%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.02	10	67%	0.12	5	-0.12	10	70%	-0.01
Ronnie Brewer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	0.03	15	62%	0.08	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.7	29.0	15.7	28.5	2.5	31.2	131.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +34.9%

DAL +2.8%

DAL +0.2%

DAL +12.8%

HOU -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	HOU	NBA	DAL	HOU	NBA
this game	15.8	15.0	15.1	119.4	110.6	105.2
season	15.3	14.3		109.0	109.5
opponent	15.2	15.0		105.4	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.9	13.2	14.6	18.8	15.8
HOU	15.9	15.6	15.4	13.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	68	70	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.00	17	-10	27	15.7	16.1	-0.46	14.8	15.6	-0.81
Monta Ellis	68	69	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	4	-1	16.3	14.4	1.84	15.2	14.4	0.85
Shawn Marion	49	49	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.19	7	0	7	15.4	16.2	-0.84	16.5	13.4	3.07
Jose Calderon	61	63	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.28	1	6	-5	15.9	15.5	0.39	15.3	14.4	0.95
Samuel Dalembert	56	56	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.36	-2	9	-11	16.4	14.9	1.48	15.2	14.8	0.39
Jae Crowder	45	45	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	4	-1	15.6	16.0	-0.36	14.3	15.7	-1.36
Brandan Wright	37	38	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.07	9	-2	11	14.9	16.4	-1.48	14.8	15.2	-0.39
Vince Carter	56	55	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.27	-4	11	-15	16.0	15.5	0.54	14.4	15.9	-1.59
Gal Mekel	25	25	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	6	-5	15.1	16.0	-0.96	14.0	15.4	-1.34

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronnie Brewer	15	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-5	3	14.6	15.1	-0.50	14.6	16.0	-1.34
Dwight Howard	79	78	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.34	3	-10	13	15.0	15.3	-0.29	16.0	14.7	1.33
Omri Casspi	38	37	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	4	-15	14.9	15.1	-0.12	15.2	16.2	-0.99
Francisco Garcia	67	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.34	0	-7	7	15.3	14.4	0.91	16.1	14.9	1.25
Jeremy Lin	73	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-3	-1	15.0	15.1	-0.16	16.0	15.1	0.89
Chandler Parsons	85	84	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-5	3	14.9	16.0	-1.08	16.0	13.4	2.59
Aaron Brooks	53	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.19	-7	0	-7	14.0	16.3	-2.30	15.7	15.8	-0.11
Terrence Jones	60	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	5	-17	16.0	13.3	2.75	15.2	16.8	-1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.32,0.24,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.18,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 91, CHA 87	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.49,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.15,0	94.4%
PHX 112, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.55,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0	93.7%
WAS 98, NYK 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.24,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0	93.7%