NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	114		Excitement	4.1 [987]		MVP	Dwight Howard (HOU): +10.8%
Detroit Pistons	97		Comeback	1.3 [800]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (DET): -13.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.11	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.02	18	70%	0.19	5	-0.08	14	64%	-0.04
Francisco Garcia	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	11	70%	0.13	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Chandler Parsons	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	15	65%	0.12	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Aaron Brooks	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	10	48%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.03	9	65%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Terrence Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.00	0.05	5	80%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	5	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gigi Datome	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.05	5	90%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	12	44%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.04	9	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	46%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Josh Harrellson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	10	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	9	45%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.00	0.01	20	40%	-0.04	3	-0.07	7	43%	-0.04
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.02	0.03	11	30%	-0.11	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.4	29.8	16.8	24.5	2.0	26.0	128.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +55.0%

DET -0.2%

DET -1.0%

DET -7.0%

HOU +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DET	NBA	HOU	DET	NBA
this game	15.7	13.7	15.1	116.3	99.0	105.2
season	14.3	15.0		109.5	104.7
opponent	15.0	15.2		108.4	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.2	15.0	15.6	19.8	15.7
DET	14.0	12.7	13.8	14.5	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	80	81	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.15	25	-8	33	15.4	16.9	-1.45	14.2	11.0	3.25
Chandler Parsons	88	87	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.07	20	-3	23	15.6	16.6	-1.00	13.9	11.6	2.31
Aaron Brooks	69	69	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.07	20	-3	23	16.0	15.0	1.00	13.7	13.6	0.14
Francisco Garcia	72	74	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.08	15	2	13	15.8	15.3	0.54	13.7	13.5	0.24
Omri Casspi	59	60	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	11	-5	16.8	14.1	2.70	13.8	13.5	0.26
Greg Smith	10	10	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.07	9	8	1	11.6	16.2	-4.57	13.2	13.7	-0.54
Patrick Beverley	33	32	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.04	7	10	-3	13.2	17.0	-3.71	14.1	13.5	0.61
Terrence Jones	52	51	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	17	-17	15.4	16.0	-0.60	13.1	14.3	-1.14
Ronnie Brewer	27	26	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.29	-14	31	-45	18.4	14.7	3.73	11.3	14.5	-3.23

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Mitchell	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-19	21	8.0	14.0	-5.99	20.6	15.4	5.16
Jonas Jerebko	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-19	21	8.0	14.0	-5.99	20.6	15.4	5.16
Josh Harrellson	6	6	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-16	15	13.8	13.7	0.16	19.3	15.5	3.87
Gigi Datome	24	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-13	9	13.9	13.6	0.25	19.6	14.5	5.05
Kyle Singler	63	63	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-16	15	13.7	13.7	-0.05	16.3	14.7	1.63
Greg Monroe	54	55	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-16	15	13.3	14.2	-0.86	15.4	16.1	-0.78
Charlie Villanueva	12	11	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	-10	3	13.2	13.8	-0.59	13.0	16.0	-3.05
Brandon Jennings	65	66	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-12	7	13.8	13.5	0.25	15.3	16.6	-1.27
Will Bynum	47	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-13	9	13.1	14.2	-1.07	16.6	14.9	1.63
Josh Smith	63	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	-8	-1	13.6	13.9	-0.36	14.3	18.1	-3.79
Andre Drummond	58	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.15	-17	0	-17	15.0	11.8	3.18	15.0	16.8	-1.81
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	42	43	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	-1	-15	13.2	14.1	-0.90	14.7	16.5	-1.75
Rodney Stuckey	46	44	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.19	-24	7	-31	14.9	12.6	2.23	15.9	15.5	0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.1,0.15,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 94, WAS 73	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
IND 116, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.26,0.2,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
LAL 99, GSW 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.17,0.13,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.22,0.27,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%