NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	111		Excitement	11.3 [41]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +31.3%
Detroit Pistons	109		Comeback	18.9 [99]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -22.3%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.07,-0.25,-0.25,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.31	-0.06	0.37	-0.00	21	43%	0.51	2	-0.19	12	92%	0.10
Wesley Matthews	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.02	0.12	0.01	13	47%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	0.07
Robin Lopez	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	8	67%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.07	0.00	13	64%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Mo Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	10	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.33,-0.22,-0.22	-0.03	-0.19	0.01	25	48%	-0.10	3	-0.12	6	83%	0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.25	0.04	0.04	17	77%	0.34	1	-0.09	6	83%	0.02
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.06	0.06	-0.06	0.10	-0.03	18	42%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.04	0.04	-0.08	0.13	0.01	15	37%	0.09	2	-0.05	5	20%	-0.07
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	6	43%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	5	38%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Josh Harrellson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	3	83%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.09,-0.01,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	16	43%	-0.06	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	0.01	14	53%	-0.01	4	-0.15	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	29.0	15.8	29.3	2.7	39.1	2.4	16.1	159.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -16.1%

POR +28.2%

POR +21.4%

POR +10.9%

POR +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DET	NBA	POR	DET	NBA
this game	15.7	15.5	15.1	107.8	107.9	105.2
season	15.1	15.0		109.6	104.7
opponent	15.0	14.8		108.4	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
POR	13.9	16.1	16.2	15.8	18.0	15.7
DET	16.1	15.2	13.7	16.2	17.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	84	82	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.40	18	-16	34	15.5	16.5	-0.99	16.0	12.9	3.09
LaMarcus Aldridge	83	81	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.43	10	-8	18	15.5	16.7	-1.28	15.6	14.9	0.63
Wesley Matthews	75	76	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.46	5	-3	8	15.9	15.2	0.74	15.8	14.5	1.30
Mo Williams	51	50	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.28	7	-5	12	15.4	16.0	-0.65	14.4	16.5	-2.17
Damian Lillard	77	78	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.49	-2	4	-6	16.1	14.5	1.68	15.8	14.3	1.49
Joel Freeland	28	26	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.07	3	-1	4	15.0	16.0	-1.04	17.5	14.7	2.81
Thomas Robinson	11	10	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.07	-8	10	-18	17.2	15.5	1.64	11.5	15.9	-4.39
Robin Lopez	75	74	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.16	-12	14	-26	16.1	14.7	1.33	15.6	15.1	0.42
Dorell Wright	31	28	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	-0.01	-11	13	-24	15.2	16.0	-0.80	12.7	16.5	-3.79

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	32	36	0.38	-0.88	1.26	-0.09	16	-18	34	14.4	15.9	-1.54	16.1	15.5	0.52
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	42	42	0.36	-0.86	1.23	-0.05	14	-16	30	14.6	16.1	-1.47	15.7	15.7	-0.05
Andre Drummond	81	83	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.02	7	-9	16	15.8	14.0	1.81	16.4	12.7	3.75
Josh Harrellson	6	7	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	2	-6	12.8	15.6	-2.79	13.9	15.9	-2.00
Josh Smith	87	88	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.48	0	-2	2	15.5	15.4	0.11	15.6	16.5	-0.95
Kyle Singler	28	30	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.30	-10	8	-18	14.5	15.8	-1.32	14.6	16.2	-1.63
Brandon Jennings	86	85	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.50	-7	5	-12	15.8	13.2	2.65	15.9	14.9	1.01
Greg Monroe	74	73	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.36	-14	12	-26	15.6	15.1	0.47	15.6	16.0	-0.35
Rodney Stuckey	69	71	-0.80	0.30	-1.09	-0.44	-12	10	-22	16.0	14.2	1.76	15.5	16.3	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.71,0.72,0.84,0.73,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.92,0.46,0.47,0.29,0.43,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 112, SAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.88,0.69,0.71,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.33,0.59,0	89.5%
SAS 128, PHX 123	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.8,0.89,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.74,0.85,0.93,0.85,0.72,0.84,0.84,0.54,0.38,0.21,0.03,0.01,0	88.8%
CLE 128, SAS 125	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.63,0.74,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.5,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.15,0	88.7%