NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	2.8 [1208]		MVP	Taj Gibson (CHI): +8.0%
Chicago Bulls	107		Comeback	1.3 [433]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -6.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	17	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Michael Beasley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	13	54%	0.03	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	12%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Norris Cole	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	9	60%	-0.03	4	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.00	0.06	6	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	11	38%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.01	0.05	12	66%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.00	0.03	9	71%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	7	81%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.08	4	37%	0.03	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	12	62%	0.07	4	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	57%	0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.04	17	63%	0.09	4	-0.08	9	78%	-0.00
Erik Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.7	36.0	17.8	34.0	3.0	27.4	145.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +42.3%

CHI +0.3%

CHI +21.2%

MIA -14.7%

CHI +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	15.3	17.0	15.1	97.8	120.2	105.2
season	15.6	16.3		109.7	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.8		99.6	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	16.1	15.1	14.9	15.3
CHI	16.1	17.4	17.6	17.1	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Beasley	41	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-17	14	14.7	15.9	-1.15	17.3	16.8	0.52
Roger Mason Jr.	35	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-16	12	15.5	15.2	0.31	17.1	17.0	0.13
Udonis Haslem	48	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	-12	4	14.8	15.9	-1.07	16.8	17.3	-0.44
Shane Battier	33	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.06	-8	-12	4	15.3	15.4	-0.08	17.1	17.0	0.09
Norris Cole	62	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-16	12	14.7	16.9	-2.19	17.7	15.7	2.01
Rashard Lewis	41	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.03	-10	-10	0	15.0	15.6	-0.69	17.6	16.6	0.98
Ray Allen	49	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.09	-13	-7	-6	15.5	15.1	0.36	17.2	16.9	0.29
Mario Chalmers	24	26	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	-4	-12	16.9	14.8	2.12	15.7	17.6	-1.84
Chris Bosh	50	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	-7	-6	15.9	14.6	1.36	16.9	17.2	-0.39
LeBron James	62	61	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.15	-21	1	-22	15.7	14.4	1.37	16.5	18.2	-1.67

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	77	78	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.12	18	2	16	17.0	17.3	-0.35	15.3	15.2	0.16
Joakim Noah	61	62	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	13	-6	17.1	17.0	0.10	15.7	14.5	1.21
Carlos Boozer	62	62	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.28	21	-1	22	16.5	18.2	-1.71	15.5	15.0	0.47
Tony Snell	53	52	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.09	14	6	8	16.9	17.2	-0.27	15.6	15.0	0.60
Taj Gibson	45	44	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.14	15	5	10	17.8	16.3	1.46	15.2	15.4	-0.15
Mike Dunleavy	48	48	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.04	8	12	-4	17.2	16.8	0.42	15.0	15.7	-0.66
Marquis Teague	36	34	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.20	2	18	-16	18.2	16.2	2.04	14.8	15.6	-0.81
Kirk Hinrich	53	55	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.28	18	2	16	16.2	18.2	-2.04	15.6	14.8	0.81
Nazr Mohammed	9	9	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	21	-22	18.6	16.9	1.69	13.1	15.6	-2.46
Erik Murphy	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	22	-24	1.0	17.2	-16.22	7.0	15.4	-8.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 103, NJN 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
SAC 92, CHI 132	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
MIN 117, DAL 131	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%