NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	6.3 [525]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +11.9%
Chicago Bulls	101		Comeback	1.3 [425]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -9.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.05	-0.00	4	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06	0.14	-0.01	0.07	17	71%	0.12	4	-0.06	11	73%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.04	0.01	13	55%	0.08	3	-0.05	7	57%	-0.04
Mario Chalmers	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	17	54%	0.02	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.01	8	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.05	0.02	22	58%	0.21	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.05	-0.03	10	68%	0.15	5	-0.08	5	60%	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	17	54%	0.16	5	-0.13	5	60%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	7	37%	0.02	1	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	10	64%	0.07	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Marquis Teague	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	10	35%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.8	29.1	17.5	26.6	4.4	50.4	159.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +34.9%

CHI +2.6%

CHI +27.9%

MIA -17.5%

CHI +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	13.6	17.2	15.4	103.2	108.6	104.1
season	15.7	16.6		110.2	101.7
opponent	15.2	15.9		102.3	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	15.8	13.8	11.7	13.6
CHI	16.9	19.2	20.5	13.6	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	55	55	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.05	5	-9	14	13.8	13.2	0.59	18.0	16.2	1.75
Udonis Haslem	19	20	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.04	-1	-3	2	13.3	13.6	-0.32	20.0	16.5	3.51
Chris Andersen	26	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	1	-6	13.6	13.6	0.06	16.6	17.5	-0.88
LeBron James	78	77	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.29	2	-6	8	13.5	13.9	-0.36	17.2	17.4	-0.23
Chris Bosh	68	67	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-5	6	13.6	13.6	-0.06	17.5	16.6	0.88
Norris Cole	24	22	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.15	-7	3	-10	13.0	13.8	-0.83	17.1	17.3	-0.20
Dwyane Wade	74	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.38	-2	-2	0	13.6	13.5	0.03	17.1	18.0	-0.93
Shane Battier	69	67	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.25	-9	5	-14	14.0	12.4	1.60	17.1	17.5	-0.40
Ray Allen	57	56	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	0	-4	13.2	14.1	-0.84	16.1	19.1	-3.00

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	63	63	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.56	-1	5	-6	16.3	19.3	-3.08	13.7	13.4	0.23
Jimmy Butler	86	86	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.35	6	-2	8	17.0	20.1	-3.13	13.4	15.4	-1.97
Luol Deng	86	88	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	0	4	17.2	18.1	-0.97	13.6	13.2	0.44
Kirk Hinrich	63	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.29	2	2	0	16.7	18.3	-1.55	13.1	14.6	-1.46
Carlos Boozer	71	71	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	-2	8	18.5	13.3	5.15	14.1	12.0	2.14
Daequan Cook	25	25	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.07	5	-1	6	16.6	17.5	-0.94	13.4	13.7	-0.29
Nate Robinson	40	43	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.22	-3	7	-10	17.9	16.7	1.19	13.4	13.7	-0.37
Marquis Teague	1	0	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	4	-4	0.0	17.4	-17.43	0.0	13.6	-13.57
Malcolm Thomas	1	0	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	4	-4	0.0	17.4	-17.43	0.0	13.6	-13.57
Nazr Mohammed	29	29	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.08	1	3	-2	19.3	16.3	2.95	14.0	13.4	0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.96,0.93,0.99,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 83, CHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.95,1,1,1,1	94.4%
LAC 100, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1	93.9%
CLE 82, LAC 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.73,0.62,0.67,0.8,0.89,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.5%