NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	9.7 [80]		MVP	John Lucas III (TOR): +29.4%
Toronto Raptors	109		Comeback	2.9 [400]		LVP	Jordan Hamilton (DEN): -18.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Randolph	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.21	-0.03	0.21	-0.03	13	50%	0.24	3	-0.03	6	67%	0.05
Andre Miller	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.11	0.00	6	86%	0.24	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.09	0.14	-0.05	-0.01	20	63%	0.12	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	75%	0.15	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	11	37%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Hamilton	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	10	35%	-0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.1,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.12	0.18	-0.00	9	78%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.32,0.43,0.28	0.28	0.07	0.21	-0.00	7	71%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.11,-0.2,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.15	0.01	14	52%	0.19	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Landry Fields	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	0.00	3	73%	0.13	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.08,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.07	-0.01	10	52%	0.12	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	18	52%	0.02	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	6	58%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.05	4	-0.12	6	100%	0.03
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.6	31.2	17.7	28.4	2.5	30.2	138.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +41.3%

DEN -1.1%

TOR +3.4%

TOR +1.9%

TOR +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	13.3	16.4	15.4	110.2	113.5	104.1
season	14.4	16.1		108.4	104.4
opponent	15.3	15.4		105.8	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	12.8	12.4	13.9	13.3
TOR	12.8	17.2	14.8	22.1	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	8	9	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-3	5	15.2	13.2	2.08	19.0	16.1	2.89
Kosta Koufos	46	45	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.06	-3	2	-5	12.5	14.1	-1.58	15.0	17.6	-2.61
Jordan Hamilton	57	57	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-3	5	13.8	12.7	1.17	15.6	17.5	-1.90
Timofey Mozgov	25	25	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-1	1	13.2	13.4	-0.18	15.5	16.7	-1.22
Ty Lawson	78	77	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.44	8	-9	17	13.2	13.7	-0.46	17.2	13.2	3.96
Anthony Randolph	55	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.53	10	-11	21	13.4	13.3	0.06	17.0	15.6	1.41
Andre Miller	61	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.49	7	-8	15	13.4	13.3	0.06	17.5	14.4	3.11
Evan Fournier	39	38	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	9	-19	12.8	13.7	-0.94	15.8	16.8	-0.94
Corey Brewer	59	56	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	9	-19	13.3	13.3	0.01	15.2	18.0	-2.77
Kenneth Faried	62	60	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.29	-11	10	-21	13.7	12.6	1.10	16.8	15.6	1.24

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	48	50	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.34	10	-9	19	16.4	16.3	0.10	14.1	12.6	1.52
Amir Johnson	68	70	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.44	2	-1	3	16.3	16.7	-0.41	13.4	13.2	0.17
DeMar DeRozan	80	83	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.35	1	0	1	15.7	19.7	-4.04	12.8	16.4	-3.62
Kyle Lowry	75	79	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.36	0	1	-1	15.9	18.1	-2.19	13.3	13.7	-0.43
Jonas Valanciunas	68	69	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	-10	21	15.2	19.1	-3.89	13.0	14.2	-1.19
Alan Anderson	21	21	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.42	-7	8	-15	22.1	14.8	7.37	14.3	13.1	1.21
John Lucas III	26	24	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.16	1	0	1	18.7	15.5	3.11	14.7	12.9	1.87
Landry Fields	32	32	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	1	-1	15.6	16.8	-1.14	12.3	13.8	-1.47
Terrence Ross	26	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	6	-11	18.2	15.7	2.43	13.5	13.3	0.25
Andrea Bargnani	36	37	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.14	-8	9	-17	15.6	16.9	-1.28	13.6	13.2	0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.66,0.67,0.66,0.83,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.82,0.75,0.55,0.76,0.63,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 89, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.67,0.81,0.64,0.84,0.85,1	92.3%
GSW 96, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.89,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.83,0.89,0.72,0.85,0.84,1	92.2%
NYK 67, PHI 72	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.58,1	92.1%