NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	105		Excitement	9.2 [114]		MVP	Jose Calderon (DET): +20.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	100		Comeback	3.8 [118]		LVP	Brandon Knight (DET): -18.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0.20	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2	0.15	0.08	0.02	13	88%	0.33	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.19	0.06	0.10	-0.02	13	69%	0.42	3	-0.23	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.11	0.01	9	73%	0.25	3	-0.08	8	100%	0.07
Will Bynum	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	8	60%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.06
Jason Maxiell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	12	52%	0.08	4	-0.12	3	67%	-0.00
Kyle Singler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	11	46%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Viacheslav Kravtsov	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Brandon Knight	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-0.03	13	15%	-0.14	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.00	0.15	-0.02	10	58%	0.23	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.01	0.02	8	79%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	9	55%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	27	43%	0.01	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.08
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.06	-0.12	0.00	7	59%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	9	40%	-0.01	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	7	14%	-0.13	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.5	27.2	16.6	25.2	1.8	37.3	132.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +92.3%

MIL -21.8%

DET +17.7%

MIL -37.4%

MIL -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	14.7	13.8	15.4	104.0	99.0	104.1
season	15.7	14.7		102.3	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.5		103.9	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	11.7	14.8	17.7	15.1	14.7
MIL	15.0	14.0	12.3	13.7	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	74	74	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.22	15	-10	25	14.7	14.9	-0.21	13.7	14.1	-0.45
Greg Monroe	74	74	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.29	12	-7	19	14.8	14.6	0.19	13.6	14.3	-0.70
Charlie Villanueva	54	53	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.51	4	1	3	15.1	14.3	0.77	13.6	14.0	-0.42
Rodney Stuckey	57	57	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.47	3	2	1	14.8	14.7	0.09	13.2	14.5	-1.31
Will Bynum	59	58	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.48	0	5	-5	15.4	13.7	1.70	13.6	14.1	-0.54
Brandon Knight	55	55	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.06	0	5	-5	13.8	15.8	-2.01	14.0	13.6	0.40
Viacheslav Kravtsov	8	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	8	-11	14.2	14.8	-0.52	15.4	13.6	1.73
Kyle Singler	58	59	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.04	-3	8	-11	14.9	14.5	0.43	14.5	12.7	1.83
Jason Maxiell	39	40	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	-0.01	-14	19	-33	16.4	13.7	2.65	13.2	14.1	-0.88

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ekpe Udoh	29	32	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.02	3	-8	11	13.8	13.8	0.06	14.8	14.7	0.16
John Henson	13	14	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-9	13	13.5	13.8	-0.28	14.8	14.7	0.06
Beno Udrih	42	44	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.10	1	-6	7	14.0	13.6	0.33	13.8	15.4	-1.58
Luc Mbah a Moute	61	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	4	-13	14.4	12.8	1.54	14.7	14.8	-0.12
Mike Dunleavy	53	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.46	4	-9	13	13.6	14.0	-0.42	14.6	14.9	-0.35
Monta Ellis	79	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-2	-1	13.4	15.0	-1.56	15.6	12.0	3.59
Brandon Jennings	81	80	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.26	-8	3	-11	14.0	12.8	1.16	14.4	15.9	-1.48
Ersan Ilyasova	75	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.26	-9	4	-13	13.5	14.7	-1.23	14.9	14.3	0.57
Samuel Dalembert	72	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	3	-11	13.8	13.8	-0.06	14.7	14.8	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.79,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.4,0.31,0.62,0.55,0.43,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 81, CLE 78	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.64,0.65,0.55,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.68,0.69,0.46,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.59,0	91.4%
IND 104, NJN 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.72,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.38,0.21,0.33,0.26,0	90.8%
NOK 99, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.28,0.35,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.47,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.42,0	89.9%