NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	6.6 [482]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +26.0%
Toronto Raptors	85		Comeback	2.7 [623]		LVP	Alan Anderson (TOR): -15.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.26	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.13	0.16	0.03	19	67%	0.32	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
LeBron James	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.17,0.14,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.14	0.02	0.06	16	70%	0.16	3	-0.06	11	82%	0.02
Norris Cole	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.06	0.00	4	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	18	57%	0.07	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	2	17%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	23	55%	0.15	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	17	56%	0.15	3	-0.08	14	100%	0.08
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	6	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.07
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	7	56%	0.05	5	-0.15	4	75%	0.00
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	7	24%	-0.05	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.5	33.1	17.6	31.4	2.7	28.3	144.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +51.1%

TOR -7.9%

TOR -6.3%

MIA +12.2%

MIA +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.7	16.3	15.4	112.4	93.4	104.1
season	15.7	16.1		110.2	104.4
opponent	15.3	15.9		105.8	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	16.4	12.9	19.1	15.7
TOR	15.1	17.1	17.7	15.2	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	75	76	0.82	-0.32	1.14	-0.03	29	-14	43	15.3	17.9	-2.62	16.3	16.2	0.09
Chris Bosh	61	65	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.04	17	-2	19	15.9	15.4	0.48	16.4	15.9	0.55
Dwyane Wade	60	63	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.25	22	-7	29	15.1	17.0	-1.90	16.3	16.2	0.14
Mario Chalmers	59	59	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.19	17	-2	19	14.7	17.8	-3.14	15.4	17.8	-2.42
Shane Battier	61	62	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.12	3	12	-9	16.4	14.1	2.30	16.0	16.9	-0.91
Norris Cole	30	32	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.25	-2	17	-19	17.8	14.7	3.14	17.8	15.4	2.42
Udonis Haslem	32	32	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.04	5	10	-5	14.4	16.4	-2.00	15.3	16.8	-1.53
Chris Andersen	21	20	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	14	-13	15.2	15.9	-0.63	16.6	16.2	0.42
Ray Allen	35	34	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.33	-11	26	-37	17.5	14.6	2.86	16.3	16.2	0.08
Rashard Lewis	11	12	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.02	-6	21	-27	16.2	15.7	0.53	18.6	15.9	2.66

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	26	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-14	13	16.8	16.1	0.75	17.0	15.3	1.67
John Lucas III	30	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.14	1	-16	17	18.9	15.0	3.92	15.5	15.8	-0.38
Alan Anderson	59	60	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-14	13	17.2	14.6	2.64	16.3	14.5	1.83
Amir Johnson	60	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	-9	3	15.0	18.7	-3.74	16.0	15.2	0.78
Aaron Gray	46	43	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	-5	-5	17.2	15.4	1.82	14.3	17.0	-2.74
Jonas Valanciunas	9	10	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	-13	11	16.1	16.3	-0.18	16.7	15.6	1.11
Kyle Lowry	61	59	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.08	-16	1	-17	15.0	18.9	-3.92	15.8	15.5	0.38
DeMar DeRozan	84	82	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.01	-21	6	-27	16.2	17.4	-1.25	15.6	17.0	-1.39
Rudy Gay	80	79	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.08	-19	4	-23	16.0	18.5	-2.48	15.5	17.7	-2.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.28,0.25,0.22,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 106, DEN 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.34,0.2,0.07,0.09,0.08,0	92.8%
UTA 83, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.16,0	92.8%
HOU 109, DEN 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.31,0.41,0.37,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.34,0.15,0.28,0.06,0.16,0	92.6%