NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	114		Excitement	6.2 [553]		MVP	Aaron Gray (TOR): +12.6%
Toronto Raptors	102		Comeback	1.8 [665]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -7.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Landry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	8	60%	0.14	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Stephen Curry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	12	65%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.01	16	56%	0.11	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.03	0.04	10	52%	0.02	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.02	0.06	11	56%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.02	8	75%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.03	17	58%	0.09	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Draymond Green	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.15	0.02	0.04	12	79%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.06	0.04	-0.07	13	42%	0.11	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	5	30%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	6	69%	0.06	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Landry Fields	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	11	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Ed Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	12	44%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.03	0.07	9	61%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	0.05	18	48%	-0.04	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.4	27.4	17.7	25.0	2.7	34.5	132.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +37.8%

TOR -1.5%

GSW +20.1%

TOR -11.2%

GSW +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	TOR	NBA	GSW	TOR	NBA
this game	14.0	16.0	15.4	117.5	107.4	104.1
season	14.6	16.1		104.6	104.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.8	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.0	13.0	13.5	16.6	14.0
TOR	16.5	17.0	16.5	14.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harrison Barnes	66	65	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.15	17	-5	22	14.1	13.8	0.28	16.2	15.7	0.52
Carl Landry	25	25	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.13	16	-4	20	15.9	13.3	2.53	18.7	15.1	3.61
David Lee	90	90	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-3	18	13.3	23.4	-10.16	16.2	12.6	3.61
Klay Thompson	74	74	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.09	12	0	12	13.0	17.1	-4.05	15.3	18.6	-3.34
Andrew Bogut	49	49	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	1	10	13.2	14.9	-1.69	15.6	16.5	-0.89
Jarrett Jack	51	48	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.15	6	6	0	15.0	12.9	2.07	15.6	16.4	-0.80
Draymond Green	23	21	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	6	0	13.7	14.1	-0.40	16.6	15.9	0.71
Stephen Curry	54	55	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	12	-12	12.8	15.5	-2.63	16.0	16.1	-0.14
Kent Bazemore	4	2	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	12	-12	6.5	14.3	-7.82	6.0	16.2	-10.24
Richard Jefferson	25	25	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.06	-6	18	-24	17.2	12.9	4.31	17.6	15.5	2.09
Andris Biedrins	24	21	-0.44	0.94	-1.39	0.05	-17	29	-46	18.0	12.7	5.26	14.8	16.4	-1.62

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Landry Fields	25	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-9	6	17.0	15.7	1.38	13.8	14.1	-0.22
Aaron Gray	68	69	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-8	4	15.3	17.8	-2.45	12.3	18.1	-5.77
DeMar DeRozan	75	76	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-8	4	15.9	16.5	-0.61	13.0	17.5	-4.44
Jose Calderon	72	74	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-8	4	15.7	17.1	-1.41	13.0	17.3	-4.39
Amir Johnson	43	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-13	14	16.6	15.5	1.11	16.4	12.1	4.34
John Lucas III	27	28	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	-3	-6	15.5	16.2	-0.70	16.0	13.2	2.81
Alan Anderson	51	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	-6	0	16.3	15.7	0.50	14.5	13.4	1.08
Terrence Ross	42	44	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.11	-13	1	-14	15.5	16.4	-0.89	15.5	12.7	2.83
Ed Davis	72	74	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.18	-18	6	-24	16.7	13.7	3.01	14.2	13.3	0.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.56,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.37,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 94, TOR 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	93.7%
UTA 93, MEM 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.0%
PHX 103, WAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	92.9%