NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	92		Excitement	4.9 [842]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +22.2%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	1.2 [1017]		LVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): -11.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	-0.01	18	54%	0.10	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	11	55%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Louis Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	8	52%	0.05	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Anthony Morrow	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Jenkins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	100%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	14	62%	0.06	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	10	46%	-0.01	5	-0.11	4	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.05	-0.06	16	69%	0.25	3	-0.03	7	86%	0.03
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	5	90%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.05	13	81%	0.20	4	-0.12	6	50%	-0.03
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	4	125%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	11	50%	0.07	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.04
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	8	18%	-0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	1.8	28.2	16.6	23.9	2.0	28.4	126.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +57.6%

ATL -8.8%

MIA +5.1%

ATL -5.5%

MIA +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	14.4	15.4	101.1	109.8	104.1
season	15.1	15.7		102.6	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.5		102.4	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.8	19.3	18.6	14.9	17.1
MIA	13.0	14.3	14.1	16.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Tolliver	5	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-14	19	14.2	17.2	-3.03	18.0	14.2	3.78
Johan Petro	5	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-14	19	14.2	17.2	-3.03	18.0	14.2	3.78
John Jenkins	5	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-14	19	14.2	17.2	-3.03	18.0	14.2	3.78
Anthony Morrow	32	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.18	2	-11	13	16.0	17.6	-1.60	14.7	14.3	0.40
Devin Harris	47	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-4	-1	17.8	16.3	1.49	13.0	15.8	-2.83
Zaza Pachulia	37	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.15	-3	-6	3	16.1	17.8	-1.71	14.9	14.1	0.83
DeShawn Stevenson	49	50	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.06	-11	2	-13	18.1	15.8	2.29	13.7	15.3	-1.59
Louis Williams	57	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-4	-1	16.5	17.9	-1.40	15.2	13.1	2.17
Josh Smith	70	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	2	-13	17.1	16.9	0.21	14.1	15.5	-1.43
Jeff Teague	73	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.06	-13	4	-17	17.2	16.5	0.71	14.4	14.4	0.06
Al Horford	75	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.08	-14	5	-19	17.7	14.3	3.34	14.4	14.6	-0.24

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	77	78	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.14	12	-3	15	13.8	17.6	-3.79	17.2	16.3	0.88
Mario Chalmers	46	45	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	0	9	13.3	15.5	-2.15	18.8	15.4	3.43
Joel Anthony	35	35	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	0	9	13.9	14.8	-0.91	17.1	17.1	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	66	64	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.24	4	5	-1	14.7	13.8	0.86	17.3	16.6	0.67
Shane Battier	38	37	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.08	8	1	7	14.1	14.7	-0.59	15.6	18.0	-2.39
Ray Allen	50	49	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	4	1	14.9	13.9	1.04	16.3	17.9	-1.60
Norris Cole	44	44	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	9	-9	15.7	13.2	2.45	15.4	18.6	-3.25
Chris Bosh	62	60	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	9	-9	15.0	13.2	1.77	17.4	16.3	1.13
Rashard Lewis	27	28	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	8	-7	13.5	14.8	-1.28	17.7	16.8	0.94
Mike Miller	15	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	12	-15	15.9	14.1	1.80	18.5	16.8	1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.73,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.82,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 88, PHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	96.0%
LAL 87, HOU 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
DAL 78, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.2%