NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	110		Excitement	5.2 [767]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +14.8%
Denver Nuggets	113		Comeback	1.4 [1211]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -7.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05	0.10	-0.03	0.01	13	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	67%	0.06	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	7	79%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	20	55%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,-0.02,0	0.03	0.04	0.06	16	56%	0.06	3	-0.06	11	100%	0.12
John Lucas III	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	44%	-0.02	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.17,0.15,0.15	0.15	-0.04	0.15	-0.04	15	50%	0.20	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.02	15	63%	0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.01	5	65%	0.08	0	0.00	16	56%	-0.04
Jordan Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	4	80%	0.05	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	11	55%	0.04	2	-0.03	11	73%	-0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	10	54%	0.07	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.03	-0.02	12	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.04
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	5	33%	0.00	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	27.9	14.8	28.2	2.3	36.6	136.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +36.9%

TOR -8.3%

DEN +23.1%

DEN +2.5%

TOR -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DEN	NBA	TOR	DEN	NBA
this game	14.5	14.3	15.4	108.9	114.1	104.1
season	16.1	14.4		104.4	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.3		104.0	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.4	17.8	12.8	11.7	14.5
DEN	13.6	12.7	14.4	16.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	33	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.25	8	-11	19	13.5	15.1	-1.62	13.9	14.4	-0.56
John Lucas III	11	10	-0.07	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-1	-1	15.2	14.5	0.72	15.5	14.1	1.39
Andrea Bargnani	82	81	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.45	7	-10	17	14.5	14.9	-0.50	14.9	11.4	3.43
Kyle Lowry	70	67	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.33	3	-6	9	14.6	14.5	0.13	15.1	12.5	2.64
Mickael Pietrus	52	51	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	2	-7	15.5	13.6	1.89	13.6	14.9	-1.33
DeMar DeRozan	82	83	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.45	6	-9	15	14.1	16.4	-2.25	14.3	13.7	0.60
Ed Davis	38	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.21	-3	0	-3	13.4	15.2	-1.84	15.1	13.8	1.31
Jose Calderon	37	38	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	4	-11	14.8	14.4	0.38	11.9	15.7	-3.83
Terrence Ross	52	49	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	1	-5	13.7	15.4	-1.64	14.9	13.6	1.28
Jonas Valanciunas	48	46	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.12	-18	15	-33	16.6	12.7	3.85	13.1	15.3	-2.22

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Miller	56	56	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.31	13	-10	23	13.4	15.3	-1.94	14.3	14.8	-0.46
Kosta Koufos	54	57	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.05	16	-13	29	14.4	14.1	0.30	15.4	13.5	1.89
Corey Brewer	44	46	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	-3	9	13.6	14.8	-1.19	14.3	14.8	-0.52
Danilo Gallinari	69	69	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.41	-3	6	-9	14.3	14.2	0.12	14.5	14.6	-0.07
Andre Iguodala	69	70	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	4	-5	13.8	15.3	-1.46	14.6	14.4	0.23
Jordan Hamilton	32	33	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.00	9	-6	15	14.2	14.3	-0.00	15.2	14.2	0.99
Kenneth Faried	65	66	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.46	-13	16	-29	15.5	11.8	3.70	14.2	15.2	-1.00
Ty Lawson	56	58	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.43	-13	16	-29	15.3	12.9	2.46	14.0	15.3	-1.24
JaVale McGee	50	50	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.01	1	2	-1	13.3	15.2	-1.84	14.7	14.4	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.84,0.91,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.99,1,0.99,0.96,0.93,0.86,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 86, PHX 104	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
ORL 91, LAC 116	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
MIL 74, ATL 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.72,0.8,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%