NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	108		Excitement	9.0 [133]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIA): +57.5%
Miami Heat	110		Comeback	32.4 [89]		LVP	Jeremy Pargo (CLE): -30.2%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Omri Casspi	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.05	0.00	6	94%	0.21	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
CJ Miles	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.07	0.12	-0.00	7	71%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.02	0.16	0.02	14	50%	0.19	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Tristan Thompson	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.04	0.00	7	81%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Daniel Gibson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	9	58%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Anderson Varejao	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.06	-0.03	0.08	-0.01	9	40%	0.08	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.05
Alonzo Gee	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.01	8	57%	0.05	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Tyler Zeller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Jeremy Pargo	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.3	-0.07	-0.25	-0.01	13	47%	-0.20	4	-0.10	8	75%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.21,0.58	0.58	0.10	0.52	0.05	11	68%	0.62	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.10	0.02	11	66%	0.23	1	-0.03	13	85%	0.03
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.01	5	90%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.07,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	16	73%	0.35	7	-0.27	9	89%	0.04
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.11	-0.02	15	45%	-0.10	4	-0.07	10	60%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	31.0	15.7	33.2	1.8	41.4	149.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +74.4%

CLE -19.2%

MIA +22.5%

CLE -27.9%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	14.4	15.4	118.7	119.6	104.1
season	15.5	15.7		102.5	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.2		102.4	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	16.2	17.2	17.5	17.5	17.1
MIA	13.8	16.3	13.2	14.5	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omri Casspi	28	30	0.36	-0.86	1.21	-0.03	13	-15	28	15.1	18.0	-2.83	16.0	13.6	2.39
CJ Miles	31	33	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.10	4	-6	10	16.3	17.5	-1.18	16.6	13.1	3.50
Tyler Zeller	40	40	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-6	10	16.5	17.6	-1.11	16.0	13.2	2.85
Tristan Thompson	42	43	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	0	-2	17.8	16.5	1.23	14.0	14.7	-0.65
Jeremy Pargo	66	67	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.47	11	-13	24	16.0	20.0	-4.00	14.0	15.4	-1.39
Dion Waiters	70	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.44	-4	2	-6	17.4	16.2	1.12	14.8	13.1	1.74
Anderson Varejao	69	67	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.44	-9	7	-16	17.6	15.5	2.05	13.3	17.3	-3.97
Daniel Gibson	53	54	-0.84	0.34	-1.19	-0.46	-13	11	-24	18.3	15.4	2.88	13.8	15.2	-1.40
Alonzo Gee	56	57	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.56	-14	12	-26	17.7	16.2	1.51	13.1	16.5	-3.38

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	64	64	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.53	13	-11	24	13.0	17.5	-4.42	17.9	15.1	2.77
Dwyane Wade	65	66	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.52	9	-7	16	13.7	16.0	-2.33	17.3	16.7	0.58
LeBron James	76	75	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.51	7	-5	12	14.0	16.2	-2.25	17.1	16.9	0.27
Chris Bosh	70	70	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.45	8	-6	14	14.1	15.3	-1.22	17.6	15.5	2.05
Ray Allen	43	43	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.46	2	0	2	15.0	13.9	1.06	17.1	17.1	-0.01
Shane Battier	42	42	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.05	2	0	2	13.2	15.4	-2.17	17.8	16.5	1.23
Joel Anthony	9	10	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.04	-3	5	-8	16.4	14.2	2.28	15.2	17.3	-2.13
Mike Miller	28	25	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.08	-7	9	-16	16.9	13.3	3.60	15.6	17.7	-2.01
Norris Cole	25	24	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	-0.05	-9	11	-20	16.6	13.6	3.03	16.1	17.5	-1.38
Udonis Haslem	38	36	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.05	-12	14	-26	16.0	13.2	2.79	15.8	18.0	-2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.26,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.45,0.1,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 91, CHH 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.21,0.18,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.33,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.17,1	91.5%
BKN 115, NOP 117	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.15,0.15,0.03,0.02,1	90.9%
PHI 88, NYK 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.27,1	90.7%