NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	104		Excitement	7.7 [296]		MVP	J.R. Smith (NYK): +27.9%
San Antonio Spurs	100		Comeback	21.9 [26]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (NYK): -14.5%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.28,0.28	0.07	0.23	0.02	13	55%	0.28	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.00	9	78%	0.20	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	8	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.04	0.05	8	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Pablo Prigioni	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.03	8	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Raymond Felton	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	0.06	-0.09	0.01	20	56%	0.07	2	-0.10	5	60%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	12	32%	-0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.00	6	76%	0.20	2	-0.09	5	100%	0.04
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.01	0.04	12	64%	0.07	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	11	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.03	10	58%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	6	42%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.01	10	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.07,0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	8	60%	0.12	3	-0.18	4	75%	-0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	20	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.6	27.0	15.5	27.5	1.8	33.3	128.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +32.2%

SAS -13.0%

SAS -7.7%

NYK +38.2%

NYK +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	SAS	NBA	NYK	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	14.9	15.4	110.6	107.5	104.1
season	16.2	15.2		107.9	106.4
opponent	15.1	15.5		99.5	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	16.6	17.0	16.2	14.1	15.9
SAS	14.1	16.4	14.4	14.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	65	64	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.48	8	-4	12	16.0	15.7	0.36	14.8	15.1	-0.30
J.R. Smith	74	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.39	6	-2	8	15.7	16.8	-1.10	14.3	17.2	-2.86
Raymond Felton	69	68	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.50	1	3	-2	16.2	15.3	0.89	14.4	16.0	-1.61
Jason Kidd	66	64	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	2	0	15.7	16.5	-0.80	15.0	14.4	0.60
Carmelo Anthony	80	80	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.39	-2	6	-8	16.0	15.7	0.26	14.5	17.3	-2.85
Ronnie Brewer	34	31	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	-2	8	16.4	15.7	0.65	17.2	13.7	3.55
Pablo Prigioni	12	12	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.02	4	0	4	16.2	15.9	0.36	17.7	14.4	3.22
Steve Novak	41	42	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.12	-1	5	-6	15.8	16.0	-0.19	14.5	15.2	-0.70
Rasheed Wallace	29	29	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.10	-4	8	-12	15.7	16.0	-0.36	15.1	14.8	0.30

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeJuan Blair	16	16	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-8	12	15.5	14.7	0.77	17.5	15.6	1.88
Danny Green	56	56	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-1	-2	15.3	14.2	1.11	16.6	14.9	1.70
Patty Mills	31	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.08	-7	3	-10	14.6	15.0	-0.42	16.1	15.9	0.19
Tiago Splitter	33	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.14	-11	7	-18	14.5	15.1	-0.63	15.7	16.1	-0.42
Boris Diaw	30	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.15	-13	9	-22	15.2	14.7	0.55	16.2	15.8	0.34
Manu Ginobili	54	55	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.45	7	-11	18	14.1	15.9	-1.74	14.8	17.5	-2.69
Tim Duncan	60	61	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.53	7	-11	18	15.1	14.5	0.63	16.1	15.7	0.42
Stephen Jackson	51	53	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.54	6	-10	16	15.1	14.6	0.44	15.3	16.7	-1.37
Tony Parker	69	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-5	6	15.1	14.1	0.99	16.0	15.8	0.19
Kawhi Leonard	65	66	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.33	-11	7	-18	14.5	15.8	-1.32	16.2	15.4	0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.88,0.94,0.88,0.78,0.75,0.64,0.68,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 93, NOH 91	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.61,0.81,0.57,0.16,0	92.9%
LAC 96, NOH 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.81,0.94,0.81,0.79,0.69,0.28,0	92.3%
WAS 103, SEA 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.64,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.16,0	92.2%