NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	97		Excitement	6.6 [381]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +28.2%
San Antonio Spurs	107		Comeback	2.7 [577]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -27.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	9	70%	0.23	3	-0.15	5	60%	-0.02
Zach Randolph	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dante Cunningham	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	10	60%	0.05	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Jeremy Pargo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	64%	0.05	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.04
Gilbert Arenas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	12	42%	-0.01	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Rudy Gay	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11	-0.10	-0.04	-0.03	22	37%	-0.06	2	-0.05	7	71%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.18	0.10	0.00	15	68%	0.31	1	-0.03	11	73%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.08	0.02	9	69%	0.21	0	0.00	11	100%	0.05
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	5	70%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	8	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.04
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.15	-0.11	0.01	12	45%	-0.05	7	-0.22	5	60%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	28.3	15.6	28.3	2.7	40.3	141.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +30.2%

SAS +14.5%

SAS +9.7%

MEM -4.5%

SAS +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAS	NBA	MEM	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	14.8	15.6	100.0	110.3	102.8
season	15.6	15.3		102.0	109.1
opponent	15.2	15.7		101.5	100.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.0	14.7	16.3	13.7	14.9
SAS	17.7	13.0	13.7	15.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Conley	60	61	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.22	11	-21	32	15.0	14.7	0.29	15.6	13.4	2.13
Marc Gasol	72	72	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.20	9	-19	28	14.8	15.1	-0.23	15.8	12.0	3.80
Gilbert Arenas	34	34	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-10	10	15.3	14.7	0.60	12.9	15.8	-2.84
Jeremy Pargo	5	4	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	-5	0	15.0	14.9	0.10	8.5	15.1	-6.55
Quincy Pondexter	44	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.04	-11	1	-12	16.1	13.9	2.21	18.7	11.7	6.99
Marreese Speights	45	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	-2	-6	16.2	13.8	2.33	17.2	12.4	4.72
Rudy Gay	87	86	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	-3	-4	14.8	15.5	-0.66	15.0	13.5	1.50
Dante Cunningham	21	20	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	1	-12	13.3	15.4	-2.07	11.5	15.6	-4.07
Zach Randolph	63	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	1	-12	14.5	15.7	-1.27	12.6	18.6	-5.93
O.J. Mayo	54	55	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.24	-17	7	-24	13.9	16.2	-2.38	12.4	17.9	-5.46

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	44	46	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.15	22	-12	34	14.0	15.4	-1.35	15.1	14.7	0.34
Stephen Jackson	51	50	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.24	11	-1	12	14.1	15.6	-1.49	14.8	15.0	-0.26
Manu Ginobili	64	65	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	-1	12	12.6	18.9	-6.30	14.2	16.3	-2.05
Tiago Splitter	27	26	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-1	12	13.9	15.1	-1.19	15.6	14.7	0.91
Tony Parker	71	70	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.06	10	0	10	15.1	14.0	1.02	14.9	15.0	-0.13
Gary Neal	26	27	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.15	0	10	-10	14.0	15.1	-1.02	15.0	14.9	0.13
Tim Duncan	70	71	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	11	-12	15.1	13.9	1.19	14.7	15.6	-0.91
Danny Green	46	47	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	8	-6	17.3	12.5	4.79	14.4	15.4	-0.98
DeJuan Blair	24	23	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.07	-5	15	-20	16.4	14.3	2.11	14.3	15.1	-0.73
Kawhi Leonard	33	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	14	-18	16.5	13.9	2.62	17.2	13.8	3.45
Boris Diaw	29	28	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.02	-7	17	-24	14.6	14.9	-0.28	15.1	14.8	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.63,0.68,0.81,0.84,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.98,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.86,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 93, PHX 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.72,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.7%
TOR 115, SEA 123	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,0.98,0.96,1	93.4%
NOH 84, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.86,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.9%