NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	95		Excitement	5.6 [551]		MVP	Jonas Jerebko (DET): +21.1%
Detroit Pistons	102		Comeback	1.5 [504]		LVP	JJ Redick (ORL): -12.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	-0.01	0.02	7	100%	0.15	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.01	7	56%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Orton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	0	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Glen Davis	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.13	0.02	0.10	22	57%	0.05	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.00
Chris Duhon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.00	0.04	6	93%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Ish Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Clark	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	7	31%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
JJ Redick	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	9	20%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.10	-0.02	8	72%	0.21	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.05	0.03	11	73%	0.18	2	-0.06	8	50%	-0.06
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	13	62%	0.10	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	12	58%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	11	62%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	12	46%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.8	29.2	17.8	27.0	1.8	31.2	132.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +53.6%

ORL -14.2%

DET +14.7%

ORL -6.3%

DET +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	16.3	16.6	15.6	108.0	117.2	102.8
season	16.2	16.3		102.8	99.5
opponent	15.4	15.8		104.4	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.3	15.7	15.3	18.5	16.3
DET	18.0	15.0	15.3	18.4	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Richardson	55	54	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.16	7	-14	21	16.5	15.9	0.61	17.0	15.9	1.16
Chris Duhon	62	61	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.16	1	-8	9	16.0	17.0	-0.91	17.0	15.7	1.24
Glen Davis	72	70	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.28	5	-12	17	16.6	15.1	1.46	16.8	15.8	1.04
Jason Richardson	42	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-4	1	16.0	16.6	-0.56	17.0	16.2	0.84
Earl Clark	47	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	1	-9	16.0	16.6	-0.59	15.5	17.8	-2.25
Daniel Orton	16	17	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	5	-17	15.1	16.6	-1.46	15.8	16.8	-1.04
Ish Smith	26	26	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.14	-8	1	-9	17.0	16.0	0.91	15.7	17.0	-1.24
JJ Redick	56	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.24	-5	-2	-3	16.3	16.4	-0.14	16.0	17.6	-1.62
Hedo Turkoglu	64	64	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.32	-12	5	-17	16.6	15.7	0.90	17.2	14.9	2.35

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Knight	77	77	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.24	14	-7	21	16.8	15.1	1.69	16.1	18.2	-2.13
Damien Wilkins	30	30	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	0	7	17.0	16.4	0.61	16.3	16.3	0.02
Greg Monroe	62	64	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	-3	13	16.6	16.5	0.11	15.4	18.7	-3.23
Jonas Jerebko	36	35	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.30	2	5	-3	16.9	16.4	0.45	17.6	15.5	2.08
Will Bynum	32	33	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	6	-5	16.9	16.4	0.49	17.6	15.5	2.06
Tayshaun Prince	62	63	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	6	-5	16.4	17.2	-0.79	16.0	17.0	-1.01
Ben Wallace	25	24	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.19	-3	10	-13	16.5	16.6	-0.11	18.7	15.4	3.23
Jason Maxiell	46	48	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	3	1	16.4	16.8	-0.35	15.8	17.0	-1.20
Ben Gordon	65	66	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	8	-9	16.2	17.7	-1.51	16.0	17.3	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.9,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 94, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.88,0.98,0.98,0.96,1,1,1	93.9%
MIL 90, NYK 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%
LAC 78, IND 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.69,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.89,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%