NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	5.5 [569]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +27.8%
Toronto Raptors	101		Comeback	1.6 [706]		LVP	Shane Battier (MIA): -9.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.28	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.16	0.13	0.02	19	67%	0.28	0	0.00	7	71%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0.18	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.06	0.02	18	68%	0.23	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.07
Mario Chalmers	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.05	-0.02	8	78%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.07	-0.01	18	62%	0.21	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Norris Cole	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.08	0.00	3	86%	0.13	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Terrel Harris	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.15	0.12	-0.00	17	71%	0.32	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.01	0.02	17	64%	0.13	2	-0.06	10	100%	0.06
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.01	5	73%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	6	75%	0.16	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	5	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.01	8	75%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.06	8	50%	0.03	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Uzoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	31.2	15.7	23.3	3.5	28.9	129.2
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +20.5%

MIA +6.0%

TOR -4.1%

MIA +20.5%

MIA +7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	16.0	17.5	15.6	131.4	117.4	102.8
season	15.5	16.5		105.6	98.9
opponent	15.2	15.8		102.9	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	15.5	16.4	17.2	16.0
TOR	15.4	16.5	18.6	19.7	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	65	64	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.11	17	-5	22	15.4	18.1	-2.79	18.4	14.7	3.66
Dwyane Wade	66	64	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.11	16	-4	20	15.4	18.0	-2.56	18.4	14.6	3.85
Shane Battier	41	42	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	2	8	17.7	14.5	3.20	17.0	17.9	-0.89
Mario Chalmers	58	58	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.10	15	-3	18	15.5	17.1	-1.64	16.7	19.0	-2.29
LeBron James	70	70	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	3	6	16.0	16.3	-0.34	16.7	20.9	-4.28
Norris Cole	28	28	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.24	-3	15	-18	17.1	15.5	1.64	19.0	16.7	2.29
Joel Anthony	51	52	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.12	9	3	6	15.5	16.9	-1.39	17.0	18.1	-1.15
Ronny Turiaf	29	29	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.21	-4	16	-20	17.3	15.4	1.98	17.5	17.4	0.04
Terrel Harris	22	23	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.04	-9	21	-30	16.5	15.9	0.62	16.3	17.9	-1.51

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	54	54	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.29	12	-24	36	18.2	16.2	2.02	15.7	16.7	-0.99
Ben Uzoh	11	11	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-13	14	19.9	17.1	2.82	13.4	16.4	-3.06
Linas Kleiza	32	32	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.09	-4	-8	4	17.1	17.7	-0.62	14.1	17.2	-3.04
James Johnson	24	26	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-13	14	18.7	17.0	1.74	17.5	15.4	2.10
Ed Davis	31	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-12	12	15.5	18.6	-3.08	15.9	16.1	-0.16
Aaron Gray	8	9	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.15	-12	0	-12	16.7	17.5	-0.78	14.6	16.2	-1.65
Gary Forbes	33	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-10	8	17.1	17.7	-0.64	18.0	14.9	3.13
Alan Anderson	23	23	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-3	-6	17.4	17.5	-0.08	15.7	16.1	-0.40
DeMar DeRozan	72	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	0	-12	17.2	18.7	-1.51	16.0	16.2	-0.20
Jose Calderon	75	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	1	-14	17.1	19.9	-2.82	16.4	13.4	3.06
Andrea Bargnani	67	68	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.00	-22	10	-32	18.1	15.3	2.74	16.1	15.7	0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.2,0.1,0.05,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 106, DET 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.34,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.2,0.07,0.08,0,0,0,0	93.0%
UTA 105, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	92.7%
SAS 102, ATL 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.26,0.17,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.09,0.07,0.04,0,0,0	92.4%