NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	93		Excitement	6.8 [360]		MVP	Marco Belinelli (NOH): +25.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	99		Comeback	2.5 [652]		LVP	Xavier Henry (NOH): -14.2%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marco Belinelli	0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25	0.14	0.13	0.01	18	71%	0.31	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Carl Landry	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.18,0.16,0.08,0.08	0.13	-0.03	0.02	13	73%	0.26	2	-0.18	7	86%	-0.03
Jason Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.05	-0.04	9	57%	-0.00	1	0.03	5	100%	0.02
Lance Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	6	47%	0.04	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Chris Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	15	47%	-0.00	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Henry	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	7	14%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.09	0.00	10	60%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	-0.01	-0.00	8	89%	0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.06	-0.01	11	61%	0.16	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.00	0.10	-0.01	10	55%	0.15	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.02	0.00	18	62%	0.17	2	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	15	56%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Przybilla	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonny Flynn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.09	-0.04	6	14%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	1.7	32.1	14.7	24.1	2.3	29.5	128.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +34.6%

NOH -16.0%

POR +17.0%

POR +13.1%

POR +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	POR	NBA	NOH	POR	NBA
this game	18.3	15.9	15.6	109.4	119.3	102.8
season	16.3	15.7		99.2	104.1
opponent	15.4	15.7		104.7	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.3	16.9	21.8	18.9	18.3
POR	15.7	14.3	15.0	18.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al-Farouq Aminu	52	53	0.50	-1.00	1.49	0.23	9	-15	24	18.3	18.3	0.01	16.8	14.4	2.32
Carl Landry	61	63	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.28	7	-13	20	18.3	18.5	-0.16	17.0	12.4	4.57
Jason Smith	54	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.37	6	-12	18	18.7	17.7	1.04	16.9	14.1	2.79
Chris Johnson	20	16	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	0	-6	17.4	18.6	-1.17	11.6	16.9	-5.32
Lance Thomas	31	30	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	8	-22	19.0	18.0	1.04	15.1	16.4	-1.33
Marco Belinelli	80	78	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-4	2	18.4	17.6	0.79	15.8	17.2	-1.37
Greivis Vasquez	78	76	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.30	-14	8	-22	18.5	17.0	1.46	15.5	20.7	-5.24
Xavier Henry	49	46	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.50	-16	10	-26	17.7	19.3	-1.62	15.2	16.8	-1.62

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	54	54	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.48	6	0	6	15.7	16.3	-0.61	18.2	18.5	-0.28
Wesley Matthews	72	73	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-5	16	15.8	16.4	-0.52	18.2	19.5	-1.35
Raymond Felton	59	61	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-4	14	15.5	17.0	-1.47	17.5	20.5	-2.95
JJ Hickson	47	47	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.36	3	3	0	17.6	13.7	3.92	18.3	18.4	-0.05
LaMarcus Aldridge	63	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	2	2	15.7	16.4	-0.70	17.7	20.3	-2.65
Joel Przybilla	30	31	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	4	-2	14.5	16.7	-2.22	19.1	17.9	1.24
Luke Babbitt	28	31	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	8	-10	15.3	16.2	-0.95	19.4	17.7	1.70
Jonny Flynn	24	24	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	10	-14	17.0	15.5	1.47	20.5	17.5	2.95
Jamal Crawford	38	40	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.12	0	6	-6	16.1	15.8	0.35	18.4	18.2	0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.6,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.81,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.55,0.55,0.85,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 87, CHH 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.58,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.45,0.55,0.86,1,1	91.9%
CHH 95, WAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.75,0.93,0.9,0.91,1	91.2%
GSW 87, UTA 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.75,0.54,0.85,1,1	90.8%