NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	2.3 [1027]		MVP	Kevin Love (MIN): +10.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	117		Comeback	1.4 [602]		LVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): -6.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JaVale McGee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	8	72%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julyan Stone	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	80%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Andre Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	8	74%	0.04	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Jordan Hamilton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	5	33%	-0.02	1	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Wilson Chandler	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.00	10	55%	0.01	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	39%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	9	43%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	14	47%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.00	0.07	13	63%	-0.00	4	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.19	0.00	0.09	19	67%	0.10	0	0.00	7	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.15	0.00	0.06	14	76%	0.12	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	8	62%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	0.00	0.07	14	61%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	15	35%	-0.00	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Malcolm Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	9	28%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	13	38%	-0.02	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	37.1	2.4	28.5	16.4	24.4	2.5	26.5	137.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +21.2%

MIN +5.2%

MIN +8.5%

MIN +13.7%

MIN +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	13.2	17.6	15.6	107.5	124.5	102.8
season	14.5	15.3		107.5	102.6
opponent	15.1	15.8		104.7	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.6	12.6	11.0	12.8	13.2
MIN	15.4	15.5	18.3	21.5	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julyan Stone	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-18	19	10.7	13.4	-2.70	19.7	17.4	2.32
Timofey Mozgov	12	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-15	13	15.7	12.9	2.81	15.2	17.9	-2.65
Chris Andersen	12	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	-14	11	11.7	13.4	-1.78	13.7	18.1	-4.37
Wilson Chandler	64	66	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.28	4	-21	25	12.9	14.0	-1.14	17.4	17.9	-0.52
Kenneth Faried	56	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-23	29	12.7	14.0	-1.35	19.0	15.1	3.90
Jordan Hamilton	35	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.23	-15	-2	-13	12.6	13.6	-0.99	16.4	18.2	-1.80
JaVale McGee	50	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.09	-12	-5	-7	12.7	13.8	-1.11	17.6	17.5	0.06
Ty Lawson	73	74	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	-10	3	13.0	14.0	-1.00	17.6	17.3	0.34
Al Harrington	44	44	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.13	-18	1	-19	14.7	11.9	2.74	18.3	16.9	1.38
Andre Miller	45	44	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.16	-19	2	-21	14.8	11.8	2.98	18.3	16.9	1.38
Corey Brewer	67	69	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.09	-20	3	-23	13.1	13.6	-0.56	16.9	19.5	-2.66

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	86	85	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.19	25	-8	33	17.4	19.5	-2.12	13.6	9.2	4.34
Luke Ridnour	70	71	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.00	11	6	5	17.1	19.0	-1.98	13.7	11.6	2.13
Anthony Tolliver	67	65	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	8	1	17.9	16.7	1.21	13.0	13.8	-0.82
Michael Beasley	41	40	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.10	14	3	11	18.1	17.1	0.99	14.4	12.3	2.08
Martell Webster	53	52	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.04	8	9	-1	16.4	19.0	-2.59	12.9	13.6	-0.71
Wayne Ellington	53	54	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.04	10	7	3	18.0	17.0	0.96	13.1	13.4	-0.34
Malcolm Lee	28	26	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.17	13	4	9	18.9	17.0	1.84	12.3	13.6	-1.26
Derrick Williams	35	36	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	17	-17	17.3	17.7	-0.35	12.8	13.5	-0.71
Wesley Johnson	37	36	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.28	-5	22	-27	17.9	17.3	0.63	12.2	13.8	-1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 79, NYK 121	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.8%
SAS 79, SEA 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
MEM 86, DET 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%