NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	114		Excitement	2.0 [1046]		MVP	DeJuan Blair (SAS): +11.4%
Denver Nuggets	99		Comeback	1.0 [822]		LVP	Jordan Hamilton (DEN): -8.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeJuan Blair	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.14	0.00	0.02	21	61%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.17	0.00	0.12	8	94%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	8	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	12	57%	0.05	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	11	62%	0.02	4	-0.01	4	100%	-0.00
Gary Neal	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.06	7	21%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Dawson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	13	51%	0.02	2	-0.02	9	67%	-0.02
James Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	4	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	67%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	10	40%	-0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	6	67%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.11	-0.00	0.12	10	77%	0.01	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Julyan Stone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	6	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.11	0.00	0.13	17	61%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.09	16	51%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Jordan Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.15	0.00	-0.06	7	0%	-0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	25.6	15.5	26.5	1.7	26.6	122.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +42.2%

SAS +0.8%

SAS +0.3%

SAS +6.9%

DEN -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	15.2	15.6	123.9	105.3	102.8
season	15.3	14.5		109.1	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.2		104.5	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.3	14.8	16.2	17.7	15.8
DEN	19.1	15.2	14.4	12.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Green	74	74	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.15	20	-5	25	15.6	16.3	-0.71	15.3	14.8	0.52
Tony Parker	66	67	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.00	12	3	9	15.8	15.6	0.26	16.0	13.2	2.79
Tim Duncan	57	58	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.17	18	-3	21	15.9	15.6	0.26	15.4	14.8	0.61
Richard Jefferson	67	69	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	5	5	16.4	14.0	2.36	15.4	14.7	0.67
DeJuan Blair	64	66	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	12	-9	16.2	14.8	1.40	15.7	14.1	1.57
Matt Bonner	49	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	12	-9	14.9	16.8	-1.89	15.1	15.3	-0.23
Gary Neal	33	36	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	10	-5	14.5	16.5	-2.04	15.2	15.2	-0.07
James Anderson	37	38	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	16	-17	15.3	16.1	-0.73	14.2	15.9	-1.73
Kawhi Leonard	3	2	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.09	7	8	-1	12.3	15.9	-3.54	12.0	15.3	-3.28
Eric Dawson	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	18.7	15.6	3.12	9.6	15.5	-5.93
Cory Joseph	6	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	20.8	15.4	5.43	8.8	15.6	-6.81

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kosta Koufos	38	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-13	11	14.6	15.7	-1.11	15.6	15.9	-0.22
Timofey Mozgov	38	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-14	13	16.7	14.2	2.56	16.7	15.2	1.53
Julyan Stone	42	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-17	19	13.5	16.6	-3.05	16.9	14.8	2.02
Al Harrington	53	51	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.27	3	-18	21	13.9	17.0	-3.08	15.8	15.8	0.01
Chris Andersen	18	18	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	-3	-9	13.4	15.6	-2.26	14.2	16.1	-1.98
Kenneth Faried	41	41	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.21	-18	3	-21	17.0	13.9	3.08	15.8	15.8	-0.01
Jordan Hamilton	55	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-11	7	14.1	16.8	-2.79	15.7	15.8	-0.15
Arron Afflalo	74	73	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	-7	-1	16.2	11.4	4.84	15.8	15.5	0.36
Corey Brewer	59	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.18	-18	3	-21	15.0	15.6	-0.57	15.7	15.8	-0.10
Andre Miller	52	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.14	-17	2	-19	16.6	13.5	3.05	14.8	16.9	-2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.14,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 82, CHI 49	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.0%
CHH 111, NYK 68	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.9%
CHI 118, BKN 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%