NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	118		Excitement	10.9 [36]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +66.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder	124		Comeback	90.7 [17]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -27.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.08	0.14	0.00	6	79%	0.22	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Kosta Koufos	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	7	87%	0.18	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	17	50%	0.15	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.02	21	56%	0.10	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.02
Jordan Hamilton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	40%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Timofey Mozgov	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.08	2	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	0.01	14	36%	-0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.09,-0.27,-0.27	-0.02	-0.25	0.00	19	52%	0.03	4	-0.30	2	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66	0.66	0.30	0.40	0.04	28	77%	0.80	5	-0.14	10	80%	0.04
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.41,0.49	0.49	0.19	0.30	0.00	29	63%	0.54	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.04	0.01	7	78%	0.14	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	6	17%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	12	33%	-0.13	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	31.1	16.7	27.3	2.7	37.0	1.6	12.3	157.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	1.9	17.4	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +27.0%

OKC +15.5%

DEN -25.2%

OKC +28.2%

OKC +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	15.6	14.4	15.6	111.3	117.0	102.8
season	14.5	14.7		107.5	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.8		101.9	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	15.0	13.9	15.9	16.9	17.2	15.6
OKC	14.3	14.3	14.8	14.4	14.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	57	55	0.46	-0.96	1.42	-0.04	17	-23	40	15.9	15.2	0.75	14.9	13.9	1.06
Jordan Hamilton	8	8	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.06	9	-15	24	16.5	15.5	1.01	15.6	14.3	1.29
Ty Lawson	79	81	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.00	2	-8	10	15.8	14.9	0.96	14.5	14.1	0.46
Corey Brewer	63	61	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.27	-10	4	-14	15.3	16.0	-0.69	14.3	14.6	-0.21
Al Harrington	60	61	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.36	3	-9	12	15.8	15.2	0.65	15.2	13.4	1.87
Andre Miller	72	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-9	12	15.4	15.9	-0.42	14.5	14.4	0.08
Kenneth Faried	24	23	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.03	-11	5	-16	17.2	15.1	2.07	13.0	14.8	-1.89
Kosta Koufos	28	29	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.31	-3	-3	0	13.4	16.4	-3.00	13.8	14.7	-0.83
Timofey Mozgov	43	44	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.03	-18	12	-30	15.3	15.8	-0.52	13.9	14.8	-0.98
Arron Afflalo	86	87	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.48	-16	10	-26	15.4	16.3	-0.97	14.3	15.1	-0.82

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	81	81	1.21	-0.70	1.91	0.30	31	-25	56	14.0	16.0	-2.05	16.0	14.2	1.74
Daequan Cook	53	54	1.05	-0.55	1.60	0.46	20	-14	34	13.6	15.3	-1.74	17.2	13.9	3.30
Russell Westbrook	87	88	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.32	22	-16	38	14.3	14.9	-0.56	15.5	15.7	-0.19
Kevin Durant	91	91	0.90	-0.40	1.31	0.35	19	-13	32	14.2	15.6	-1.36	15.4	16.5	-1.05
Kendrick Perkins	43	44	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.09	7	-1	8	14.1	14.7	-0.53	15.0	16.0	-0.93
James Harden	69	68	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.00	-7	13	-20	14.8	13.7	1.16	14.9	16.8	-1.87
Royal Ivey	15	15	-0.40	0.90	-1.31	-0.02	-13	19	-32	15.6	14.2	1.36	16.5	15.4	1.05
Reggie Jackson	19	18	-0.47	0.97	-1.44	0.00	-16	22	-38	14.9	14.3	0.56	15.7	15.5	0.19
Nick Collison	42	40	-0.49	0.99	-1.49	-0.05	-15	21	-36	15.6	13.7	1.88	14.2	16.4	-2.23
Nazr Mohammed	21	21	-0.67	1.17	-1.83	0.04	-24	30	-54	15.6	14.1	1.48	15.0	15.7	-0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.67,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.2,0.12,0.22,0.11,0.22,0.19,0.37,0.43,0.41,0.46,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 98, MIL 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.32,0.29,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.09,0.12,0.05,0.16,0.32,0.16,0.54,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.92,1	88.4%
MIL 90, NJN 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.43,0.34,0.08,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.73,1	88.4%
LAC 87, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.27,0.3,0.15,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.85,0.92,1,1	87.1%