NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	81		Excitement	5.3 [604]		MVP	Tiago Splitter (SAS): +17.0%
San Antonio Spurs	93		Comeback	1.6 [827]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (NOH): -16.3%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Landry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.00	12	65%	0.13	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.02	6	69%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
DaJuan Summers	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	70%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Carldell Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.02	0.05	7	57%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	14	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Jason Smith	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	11	25%	-0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.05	-0.04	10	25%	-0.07	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.06	0.00	9	76%	0.19	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.03	0.01	8	83%	0.16	1	-0.00	7	100%	0.04
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	6	58%	0.09	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.05	0.03	15	55%	0.09	4	-0.08	3	67%	0.01
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	9	39%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
DeJuan Blair	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	6	21%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	10	29%	-0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.5	26.2	14.5	25.3	2.4	26.2	123.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +19.4%

SAS +10.8%

SAS +7.9%

SAS +12.8%

NOH -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	SAS	NBA	NOH	SAS	NBA
this game	16.9	16.8	15.6	94.2	109.4	102.8
season	16.3	15.3		99.2	109.1
opponent	15.2	15.7		101.5	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	15.8	15.9	17.1	18.6	16.9
SAS	19.4	17.5	15.6	14.8	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Emeka Okafor	37	38	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-14	16	16.1	17.5	-1.44	17.2	16.5	0.63
Carldell Johnson	26	25	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.13	5	-17	22	16.2	17.2	-0.97	18.0	16.3	1.63
Trevor Ariza	58	60	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-11	10	16.5	17.7	-1.25	17.3	15.6	1.72
Gustavo Ayon	30	28	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-9	6	17.1	16.8	0.30	17.0	16.7	0.33
DaJuan Summers	24	23	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	-7	2	17.4	16.7	0.70	15.9	17.2	-1.29
Jason Smith	54	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-6	0	16.4	17.7	-1.30	17.2	16.1	1.18
Al-Farouq Aminu	37	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-4	-4	17.5	16.4	1.08	17.9	16.1	1.88
Marco Belinelli	53	53	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-2	-8	16.7	17.2	-0.55	15.9	18.3	-2.36
Greivis Vasquez	60	60	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.02	-17	5	-22	17.2	16.2	0.97	16.3	18.0	-1.63
Carl Landry	51	50	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.12	-17	5	-22	17.9	15.4	2.43	16.0	18.0	-2.07

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Green	57	57	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.15	11	1	10	16.7	17.0	-0.33	17.1	16.4	0.69
Tiago Splitter	47	49	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-1	14	16.8	16.8	-0.01	18.1	15.3	2.81
Gary Neal	51	54	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	1	10	16.1	17.9	-1.74	17.1	16.4	0.69
Tony Parker	61	63	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.00	10	2	8	16.4	17.9	-1.48	17.1	16.2	0.95
Matt Bonner	39	39	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	8	-4	16.9	16.7	0.16	17.7	16.1	1.59
Cory Joseph	24	23	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.15	2	10	-8	17.9	16.4	1.48	16.2	17.1	-0.95
Tim Duncan	43	43	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.16	11	1	10	16.6	17.1	-0.51	15.9	17.8	-1.88
DeJuan Blair	35	35	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	8	-4	16.8	16.8	0.03	16.1	17.4	-1.33
Richard Jefferson	46	44	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.00	2	10	-8	16.8	16.8	-0.02	16.3	17.5	-1.18
Kawhi Leonard	19	20	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.12	-4	16	-20	19.2	16.1	3.09	16.1	17.1	-0.94
James Anderson	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	16	-20	18.0	16.8	1.23	12.7	17.0	-4.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.86,0.91,0.97,0.89,0.94,0.93,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 102, CHA 118	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.86,0.76,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.7%
CLE 103, LAC 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.82,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1	94.4%
WAS 101, MIN 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.3%