NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	105		Excitement	5.4 [582]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (MIL): +21.8%
Houston Rockets	99		Comeback	4.6 [125]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (HOU): -15.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.09	-0.01	11	69%	0.22	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Brandon Jennings	0.11	0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.02	-0.02	16	56%	0.11	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.01	6	46%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	16	59%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Drew Gooden	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	8	61%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Larry Sanders	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jon Leuer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	44%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	44%	-0.03	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.02	0.05	22	66%	0.17	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.00	0.04	11	67%	0.09	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	14	52%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	32%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	9	54%	0.03	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.04	-0.04	7	29%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.18	0.00	-0.02	16	22%	-0.14	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.7	23.2	15.4	27.4	2.3	34.5	127.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +44.9%

HOU -4.3%

HOU -8.7%

MIL +16.0%

MIL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	HOU	NBA	MIL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.7	14.2	15.6	105.0	100.0	102.8
season	14.6	15.4		103.8	103.5
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.2	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.8	14.8	14.7	14.6	14.7
HOU	15.2	15.2	15.3	11.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	60	59	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.41	14	-8	22	14.9	14.4	0.43	13.3	15.6	-2.25
Stephen Jackson	65	62	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.44	8	-2	10	14.7	14.7	-0.05	13.3	15.8	-2.48
Larry Sanders	18	16	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.07	20	-14	34	12.7	15.2	-2.49	15.2	14.0	1.21
Ersan Ilyasova	57	56	0.65	-0.14	0.79	0.41	8	-2	10	15.9	13.1	2.76	13.8	14.8	-1.07
Beno Udrih	30	31	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.15	16	-10	26	14.2	14.9	-0.73	14.9	13.9	0.98
Andrew Bogut	19	19	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.04	6	0	6	14.6	14.7	-0.16	15.4	14.0	1.41
Luc Mbah a Moute	37	38	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	1	4	12.8	15.8	-3.01	14.8	13.9	0.95
Jon Leuer	5	5	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.01	-4	10	-14	15.0	14.7	0.31	15.8	14.1	1.65
Brandon Jennings	70	68	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.17	-10	16	-26	14.9	14.2	0.73	13.9	14.9	-0.98
Carlos Delfino	39	40	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	9	-12	14.5	14.8	-0.28	15.7	13.2	2.46
Drew Gooden	58	59	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.28	-16	22	-38	15.4	13.8	1.55	13.5	15.4	-1.92
Tobias Harris	6	5	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.01	-7	13	-20	15.2	14.7	0.49	15.0	14.2	0.81
Shaun Livingston	36	37	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	-0.10	-7	13	-20	14.6	14.7	-0.11	15.6	13.4	2.26

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chandler Parsons	74	76	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.26	4	-10	14	13.9	15.3	-1.40	15.1	13.5	1.59
Patrick Patterson	30	30	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-1	-4	15.8	13.6	2.25	13.9	15.0	-1.11
Kevin Martin	75	77	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-8	10	13.6	16.1	-2.44	14.6	15.1	-0.49
Samuel Dalembert	60	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	5	-16	15.0	13.0	1.99	14.7	14.6	0.10
Luis Scola	75	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-4	2	14.1	14.5	-0.35	15.0	14.0	0.96
Goran Dragic	52	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.33	-3	-3	0	13.6	15.0	-1.42	14.6	14.8	-0.20
Kyle Lowry	89	91	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	-3	0	14.0	16.0	-1.97	14.5	16.6	-2.03
Courtney Lee	40	40	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.12	-12	6	-18	15.1	13.6	1.50	14.8	14.6	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.72,0.8,0.71,0.64,0.42,0.3,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 118, LAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.44,0.42,0.26,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0	91.1%
SEA 103, PHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.63,0.52,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.13,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	90.4%
LAL 112, LAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.76,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.8,0.78,0.68,0.66,0.34,0.26,0.17,0.19,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.09,0	89.9%