NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	79		Excitement	1.5 [1065]		MVP	James Harden (OKC): +8.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	99		Comeback	1.2 [1059]		LVP	Greg Monroe (DET): -6.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Jerebko	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	9	55%	0.02	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	11	48%	0.01	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Vernon Macklin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	10	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	2	33%	0.00	2	-0.01	2	0%	-0.00
Walker Russell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	5	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	5	38%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	9	45%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Brandon Knight	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	0.00	0.05	9	57%	-0.02	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	14	35%	-0.06	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.22	0.00	0.13	11	96%	0.09	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.00	0.03	17	67%	0.08	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	13	69%	0.07	4	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	5	80%	0.05	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	3	37%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	4	30%	0.00	3	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	1	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lazar Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	10	30%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.8	28.1	15.4	22.7	1.0	29.4	127.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +42.0%

OKC +0.1%

OKC +3.9%

OKC +3.5%

OKC +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	OKC	NBA	DET	OKC	NBA
this game	15.3	15.0	15.6	82.3	105.3	102.8
season	16.3	14.7		99.5	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.4		101.9	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.6	15.3	16.2	12.3	15.3
OKC	12.1	16.0	16.5	15.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vernon Macklin	18	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-26	32	11.9	16.1	-4.18	15.3	15.0	0.29
Austin Daye	40	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-19	18	13.8	16.3	-2.54	15.3	14.8	0.55
Walker Russell	35	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-21	22	13.1	16.5	-3.41	15.2	14.9	0.22
Jason Maxiell	25	24	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-17	14	13.0	16.1	-3.03	16.0	14.7	1.36
Ben Wallace	36	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	-10	0	16.8	14.4	2.44	14.4	15.4	-1.05
Damien Wilkins	54	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-12	4	13.2	17.9	-4.66	15.4	14.5	0.88
Jonas Jerebko	50	49	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-18	16	13.8	16.9	-3.17	15.3	14.7	0.62
Rodney Stuckey	44	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.12	-15	-5	-10	17.6	13.3	4.31	14.0	15.9	-1.87
Greg Monroe	53	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.31	-23	3	-26	17.5	12.6	4.93	14.5	15.7	-1.23
Tayshaun Prince	61	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.24	-22	2	-24	16.8	12.6	4.26	14.9	15.3	-0.40
Brandon Knight	64	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.22	-23	3	-26	16.4	13.1	3.23	15.4	14.3	1.09

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	49	49	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.48	32	-12	44	15.3	14.8	0.53	16.4	14.1	2.30
Russell Westbrook	55	57	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.27	22	-2	24	14.7	15.5	-0.73	16.8	13.1	3.67
Kevin Durant	54	57	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.11	16	4	12	14.5	15.7	-1.25	16.9	12.9	3.97
Kendrick Perkins	47	48	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.02	11	9	2	14.9	15.1	-0.19	16.8	13.8	3.02
Serge Ibaka	48	52	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.01	10	10	0	15.1	15.0	0.06	16.0	14.4	1.65
Nick Collison	18	17	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.15	12	8	4	15.4	14.9	0.44	15.9	15.1	0.80
Nazr Mohammed	31	33	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.13	10	10	0	15.0	15.0	0.00	13.8	16.1	-2.32
Daequan Cook	40	39	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	14	-8	15.7	14.5	1.25	12.9	16.9	-3.97
Reggie Jackson	39	39	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.18	-2	22	-24	15.5	14.7	0.73	13.1	16.8	-3.67
Thabo Sefolosha	36	39	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.11	-1	21	-22	14.2	15.5	-1.27	15.7	15.0	0.74
Cole Aldrich	22	21	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	24	-28	15.0	15.0	0.02	12.5	16.1	-3.53
Royal Ivey	17	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	26	-32	15.0	15.0	-0.04	11.9	15.9	-4.01
Lazar Hayward	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	26	-32	15.9	14.9	1.05	12.7	15.7	-2.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 83, DET 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.59,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.5%
NYK 107, LAC 128	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.4%
NYK 97, UTA 129	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.2%